Fred

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 12, 2009 6:54 am

Saturday Morning Update

Fred in sorry shape

Fred is almost nothing more than a low level swirl of clouds now, except for some deep convection on banding well north of the center. A satellite estimate came in at 41 knots a few hours ago. With no convection near the center and the wekaening trend, we will now estimate 35 mph or just below tropical storm force.

At 8 am edt / ast Hurricane Fred was centered at 17.5° N / 33.5° W or about 695 miles west northwest Sal, Cape Verde Islands. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph (NHC 45 mph). Fred is drifting barely north.

:idea: Note our position estimate is different from the hurricane center's because we are using different reference points.

Fred should start moving west northwest as a very weak low in the next day or two.

Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite (6:15 am edt/ast)
Image
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 12, 2009 4:12 pm

The National Hurricane Center has finally downgraded to tropical depression of 35 mph. This will be the last advisory on Fred unless regeneration occurs.
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 16, 2009 2:39 am

Fred has been trying to make a comeback over the past 24-36 hours. There have been brief small convective bursts around the circulation. Several hours ago, a rather impressive burst. If this burst was sustained we would have said that Fred is back again and should regain it's tropical depression status.

Forecast models try to reenergize Fred a little and move it west northwest in the general direction well north of the Leewards over the next couple of days.
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 16, 2009 10:42 am

As of Midday Wednesday, Fred's circulation is still firing up thundershowers on the north side. Visible satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation is still intact, but weak.
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:28 am

It appears that the remnants of Fred will increase chances of rain to the northern half of the Bahamas over the weekend. Right now the circulation with Fred is centered a few hundred miles east of the central Bahamas moving west northwest.
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:12 pm

The latest Quickscat satellite estimates show that the remnants of Fred still do not have a closed low at the surface. Some showers and storms are associated with this system and are likely to affect the northern Bahamas and Florida into the weekend / early next week. Rainfall will be enhanced as this feature moves through.
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Re: Fred

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:44 am

The circulation with Fred is still depicted as a strong tropical wave on Quickscat satellite. A new burst of heavy showers and storms are associated with it. There is still some chance of minimal development as it increases rain chances from the northern Bahamas / Florida north to the Carolinas over the next few days.
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