Felix

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday

Disturbance east of the islands will be Felix very soon. Check Friday's tropical weather summary for details....

[Tropical Inspector]

OK, I don't know where NHC is going with this one. They finally issue a special statement that the "disturbance" may be forming into a tropical depression.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery and Quickscat - it is a depression now, if not a storm. NHC is notorious for waiting for official Hurricane Hunter data to classify. That is what is going on. A Hurricane Hunter will investtigate early this afternoon. Don't be surprised to see this one go from a "disturbance" to a tropical storm.

Main impact will be south. Trinidad and Tobago north to St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

[Tropical Inspector]

Recon found 36 kt winds which would equate to just over minimal tropical storm force winds. Winds were extrapolated from 1500 ft so there would not be much of a surface correction factor.

TD 6 will likely be ts Felix this evening sometime.

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday AM

The southern Windwards will be getting the worst of "T.D." 6 over the next
six hours. The weather should be improving in Barbados and Tobago over the next few hours. It looks like the heaviest rain and gustiest winds will move over Grenada and also The Grenadines. St. Vincent will also get hit, but not quite as much as the others.

The center will pass near or just south of Grenada. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of wind gusts to 50 mph. The future track takes Felix across the southern/central caribbean eventually toward Honduras or Belize as a hurricane. It's on a track similar, but a bit farther south than Dean's. Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao need to watch soon to be Felix. They are usually outiside of the bad weather zone, but maybe not this time.

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Late AM

Get ready for Felix in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao! T.S. Felix is moving along quickly at 18 mph and will be in the vicinity tonight. The first showers are about to move into Bonaire already.

These islands are south of the normal tropical cyclone track and get spared most times. Not this time. The center of circulation of Felix is just north of about 12N. It looks like Felix will hold this course or move just a small amount farther north..

Felix is organizing with sustained winds at 65 mph. It is possible that Felix will be a hurricane by the time it gets to The A,B,C islands tonight!

After this, Felix will continue to move toward central America and make landfall near Honduras and Belize - a little farther south than Dean.

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Late Afternoon

Visible satellite of Felix shows a slight northwestward jog. This should take the center north of the A,B,C islands. The islands still should get the squalls on the south side of the tropical cyclone. At this time, the stronger side is to the south.

NHC's new advisory will be out shortly.

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening

As expected, Felix has become a hurricane. Top winds are 75 mph. The models have been doing well with the track. The slight northward drift will take the worst of Felix north of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. The A,B,C islands will get some squally weather with Felix's bands but miss the worst weather. :)

Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch. It looks like the nastiest weather will be well south. Felix is getting better organized and a solid core is now developing over the circulation center. This will allow strengthening. The development will be somewhat restricted due to the close proximity to land. As Felix moves farther west toward the western Caribbean Sea more marked strengthening is possible.

The best forecast models are still consistent keeping the center of Felix about 200 miles south of Jamaica. It should be near the Honduras coast Tuesday then possibly into Belize.

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Early AM

The weather is about to go downhill in Bonaire. The deep convection may nip Bonaire and Curacao tonight. The strongest winds are in a tight core around the center. At this time it looks like the eye will go north of Bonaire and Curacao. Since Aruba is just a bit farther north there will be a threat of stronger winds and heavier rain by daybreak there.

Expect further strengthening, especially once the South American land mass is cleared. Models are not changing much. Northern Honduras Tuesday then into Belize Wednesday.

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday AM
Felix is just a little north of Curacao. Thankfully the eyewall continues to be north of the islands. Felix has jogged slightly more north then due west overnight. This will likely take the eyewall just north of Aruba also.

Felix is strengthening and now is 100 mph. It is on the way to major hurricane status probably later today as the pressure continues to drop. This is not good news for the eventual landfall area which continues to be Honduras and Belize. Northern Nicaragua is not out of the picture either.

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday PM
Felix is going to town. The eye in Felix is now becoming well defined. It may make major status by this evening. Thankfully, the eyewall passed just to the north of the A,B,C islands.

It's time to get all preparations underway in the pathway of Felix...Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Belize and part of the Yucatan.

The track is about the same approaching the Honduras coast late Monday evening into Tuesday morning and about 12-24 hours later Belize.

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday evening
Felix is now one big, bad hurricane. As it has pulled away from the South American continent and low level is now totally unrestricted, it has rapidly deepened today. Top sustained winds are now 140 mph. Not only is it a major hurricane, it is now a cat 4. Felix is now one of the fastest strengthening hurricanes observed.

The track is nearly the same near the Honduras/Nicaragua border late Monday night into Tuesday, then Belize and Mexican Yucatan by Wednesday. At this time if the forecast were to hold exactly true, the worst conditions would be along the northern coast of Honduras, Belize and just south of Cozumel and Cancun areas. Even if it stays farther south. expect large swell to once again be felt north into Cancun and Cozumel.

Felix is a dangerous hurricane and preparations need to be completed very soon!

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday evening - mini update


Felix is a cat 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph. A dropsonde wind of 188 mph was measured in the eyewall.

[Tropical Inspector]

Early Monday Update

Little change since last update. Max wind still 165 mph. No new recon. Earlier a recon had to abort the mission due to severe turbulence. Latest info will be satellite interpretation until the next plane goes in.

Felix is a dangerous hurricane and preparations need to be completed very soon!

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday late morning update
Just a bit of slightly better news. The last recon measured a pressure of 942 mb. This is a significant rise from the low of 929 mb estimated earlier. The Satellite loop shows that the cloud tops have warmed, indicating slight weakening. However, even if Felix has weakened slightly, it is still a very dangerous hurricane! It is possible that this is a temporary phase and that Felix will strengthen again before landfall.

It looks like Felix is going just a bit farther to the south. That means it may make landfall on the Nicaragua / Honduras border. If that is the case, landfall will be very late tonight or early Tuesday. The northern coast of Nicagagua and Honduras will take a nasty blow from Felix.

Felix is a dangerous hurricane and preparations need to be completed by the next several hours and coastal areas need to be evacuated if local officials have called for an evacuation!

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday late morning mini-update
NHC just stated in the 11 am advisory two things that we were able to share earlier....that the cloud tops have warmed - the hurricane has weakened slightly....down to 160 mph. Also, they are now shifting the track a touch to the south near the Nicaragua / Honduras border.

The pressure has flattened out at 940 mb. We'll have to watch closely to see if Felix is going to go into another deepening cycle.

Felix is a dangerous hurricane and preparations need to be completed by the next several hours and coastal areas need to be evacuated if local officials have called for an evacuation!