Melissa

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 4:51 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Melissa is heavily sheared
The low center of Melissa is nearly exposed with only some deep convection. It is battling wind shear. The massive burst of deep convection is currently well east of the center of circulation.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane as it slowly moves northward generally between eastern Jamaica and southern Haiti. This track will be impacted by how much wind shear plays a role in its development. Significant changes are possible.

Potential hazards include strong, damaging winds, high surf, very heavy rainfall / flooding.

Interests in Haiti and Jamaica should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 4:36 pm

Wednesday Late Afternoon Update

Little change since yesterday
The low center, after being under deep convection earlier today has once again emerged to the west. Strong west / NW wind shear has misaligned the low and mid level centers not allowing for strengthening at this time.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite Late Afternoon

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite Early Afternoon

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane over the next 2-3 days as wind shear lowers. It is forecast to slowly move northward then turning westward - south of Jamaica into this weekend. This track will be impacted by how much wind shear plays a role in its development. Significant changes are possible.

Potential hazards include strong, damaging winds, high surf, very heavy rainfall / flooding.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Thu Oct 23, 2025 4:05 pm

Thursday Late Afternoon Update

More disruption

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for southern Haiti and Jamaica.

Today the low continues to fight wind shear, with the convection being dispersed, but still mainly east of the low center. With the slow motion of this tropical cyclone, very serious flooding is possible causing river flooding, flash flooding and landslides. Other potential hazards include strong damaging winds and high surf.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane over the next 1-3 days as wind shear lowers. It is forecast to slowly move northward then turning westward - south of Jamaica into this weekend. A turn to the north near Jamaica and eastern Cuba is possible by early next week. This track will be impacted by how much wind shear plays a role in its development. Significant changes are possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Fri Oct 24, 2025 5:40 pm

Friday Late Afternoon Update

Melissa getting organized

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for southern Haiti and Jamaica.

Deep convection is expanding and banding is taking shape today. Heavy rainfall is spreading over Hispaniola. A rapid deepening (strengthening) phase is becoming more likely. Interests in Jamaica should be preparing for possible impacts from a major hurricane.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 74.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane over the next 24 hours as wind shear continues to lower. It is forecast to slowly turn westward - south of Jamaica into this weekend. A turn to the north near / over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is becoming likely by early next week. Forecast models are becoming more aligned on this forecast.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:00 pm

Saturday Late Afternoon Update

Melissa now a hurricane

Melissa continues to organize today with Hurricane Hunter aircraft report the assemblance of a 20 mi wide eyewall taking shape. The central dense overcast (CDO) indicates very cold cloud tops pointing to organization. The heaviest rainfall is within the CDO and east of the low center in banding. Looking at the latest recon I currently don't see any winds close to 90 mph yet and think that this is a bit high, but strengthening is likely soon.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropicast: Jamaica Radar 19:44Z / 3:44 pm EDT Saturday

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon Report - Strongest measured wind 64 kts

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are now indicating a rapid strengthening phase to begin shortly into Sunday. Melissa is forecast to slowly turn westward - south of Jamaica into Sunday then turn to the north near / over Jamaica and eastern Cuba by early next week.

Jamaica should finish preparations by Sunday for the possibility of a major hurricane. Damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is possible in eastern Jamaica and SW Haiti. Very heavy rainfall is also likely in SW Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Sun Oct 26, 2025 11:02 am

Sunday Midday Update

Melissa strengthens rapidly

Since last evening, Melissa has strengthened very rapidly. A very well defined eye is now visible as well as clustered deep convection east of the central dense overcast or core convection of the hurricane. Unfortunately the radar site or website from Jamaica is not available so those images can not be displayed.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon Report - Strongest measured wind 120 kts

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue the slow motion with the northerly turn anticipated by Monday. This wil put the hurricane making landfall over Jamaica by later Monday night / Tuesday morning with effects well preceding this time. A second landfall over far eastern Cuba is expected late Tuesday. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as predicted by the current models.

Storm surge, especially on the south coast of Jamaica, with strong, damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is possible in eastern Jamaica and SW Haiti. Very heavy rainfall is also likely in SW Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Mon Oct 27, 2025 1:12 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Melissa beginning to slowly turn north, remains a cat 5

Melissa became a category 5 hurricane this morning. The hurricane hunters continue to show pressure drops and strengthening. It is possible for a fluctuation in strength during eyewall replacement cycles before landfall on the south coast of Jamaica.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Jamaica Radar this morning

Jamaica Radar this afternoon

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon Report earlier this afternoon

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Landfall on the south Jamaica coast is still expected tonight / Tuesday morning . A second landfall over far eastern Cuba is expected late Tuesday. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as predicted by the current models.

Storm surge, especially on the south coast of Jamaica, with strong, damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is possible in eastern Jamaica and SW Haiti. Very heavy rainfall is also likely in SW Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Official NHC Advisory
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 850.shtml?

Official NHC Forecast Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

WPC Rainfall Forecast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... f#contents

Melissa

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