Idalia

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening Update

TD 10 forms
A large area of convection extends from the NW Caribbean to across the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak low pressure system is now apparent over the Yucatan channel.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD ten is forecast to meander for a day or two near the NE Yucatan peninsula then move NNE across the Gulf of Mexico. A landfall as a minimal hurricane is possible near the Big Bend of Florida around Tuesday night to early Wednesday. Keep in mind that this is a preliminary forecast and is subject to change.

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Midday Update

TD10 upgraded
NHC has upgraded TD 10 to tropical storm Idalia. IMO, I would have waited a little longer. Despite having a large area of convection, the low center seems to lack significant convection to cause 40 mph surface sustained winds.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia will begining to move north from the Yucatan channel on Monday evening. A landfall as a minimal hurricane is possible near the Big Bend of Florida around early Wednesday. Keep in mind that this is a preliminary forecast and is subject to change.

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Late Afternoon Update

Idalia will be a hurricane soon
Satellite imagery shows a large burst of deep convection near the center of Idalia and across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia will move northward into the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight. It will continue northward along the western Florida coast offshore. Idalia is forecast to make landfall Wednesday morning somewhere along the Big bend of Florida. Keep in mind that a small deviation in track can greatly change the hazard impacts. Hurricane force winds, storm surge flooding, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes in outer rain bands all all hazards the will impact the west coast of Florida to areas along the northwestern coast also.

All preparations should be completed soon as possible.

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Midday Update

Idalia in the SE Gulf
Satellite imagery shows Idalia strengthening over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Squall bands will affect the west coast of Florida today with isolated tornadoes. Storms tides will also increase.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia is strengthening and is expected to make landfall on the Big Bend of Florida Wednesday morning. Keep in mind that a small deviation in track can greatly change the hazard impacts. Hurricane force winds, storm surge flooding, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes in outer rain bands all all hazards the will impact the west coast of Florida to areas along the northwestern coast also.

All preparations should be completed soon as possible.

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Evening Update

Idalia moving toward the NE Gulf coast
Satellite imagery shows convection expanding around the eye of Idalia indicating strengthening. The core of the hurricane is well away from the Florida west coast keeping the strongest winds well offshore. Some squall bands are reaching the west coast, with the threat of isolated tornadoes.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropicast: Tampa Radar


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia is strengthening and is expected to make landfall on the Big Bend of Florida Wednesday morning. Keep in mind that a small deviation in track can greatly change the hazard impacts. Hurricane force winds, storm surge flooding, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes in outer rain bands all all hazards the will impact the west coast of Florida to areas along the northwestern coast also.

All preparations should be completed'

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Midday Update

Idalia over south Georgia
Idalia made landfall on the sparsely populated Big Bend of Florida coast around daybreak this morning. At that time, buoys indicated winds of 65 mph near the landfall area. It is assumed that it did not measure the strongest winds. At the same time I feel that NHC overestimated the surface sustained winds of this hurricane. Winds of 40-55 mph were reported on the coast from New Port Richey to Clearwater. The main threat from Idalia at this time will be heavy rainfall causing inland flash flooding as well as continued storm surge.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 83.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropicast: Tallahassee Radar approximately 8am edt


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia will bring heavy rainfall to south Georgia and coastal North and South Carolina as it moves back out to sea.

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Idalia post tropical
Idalia brought heavy rainfall to eastern North and South Carolina late Wednesday into early Thursday. It has moved off the the Southeast coast and has lost tropical characteristics.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 72.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Weather Forecast: Idalia is expected to move generally southeast and once again regain tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Bermuda. After this the path is uncertain due to weak steering currents.

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Idalia expected to rejuvenate
Idalia is a broad circulation with spotty convection.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 72.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia is expected to regain tropical characteristics on Saturday and regain tropical storm strength.

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Idalia brings tropical storm conditions to Bermuda.
Idalia has passed Bermuda bringing heavy showers and tropical storm force winds. We're not sure why NHC didn't make Idalia a tropical storm again and plan on doing that later today. Granted, it seems more extratropical, but they would usually do this before a tropical cyclone moves over a land area.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Idalia is expected to regain tropical characteristics on Saturday and regain tropical storm strength briefly.