Lisa

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Morning Update

Lisa developing
IR satellite imagery shows deep convection developing around and especially north of the low center. Good outflow aloft is noted north and east of the tropical storm.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lisa is expected to continue development as it heads west in the general direction of Honduras. Honduras will likely also see heavy rainfall.

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Night Update

Lisa will become a hurricane before landfall tomorrow
Lisa continues to organize this evening. Outflow aloft continues to improve in the low shear environment. It will likely become a hurricane by Wednesday morning. Hurricane Hunters are currently in the storm and have found a top wind gust to 62 knots.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Late Tuesday Afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lisa will make landfall on the Belize coast on Wednesday afternoon / evening as a hurricane.

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Night Update

Lisa inland
From NHC earlier:
Lisa has made landfall along the coast of Belize, near the mouth of the Sibun River, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City around 420 PM CDT
(2120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990.

IMO Lisa was not this strong at landfall. Radar did show an eyewall, but winds of 85 mph sustained should have produced gusts to at least 100 mph. It was more likely a 70-75 mph sustained wind at landfall. In addition, the surface pressure of 990 mb is quite high for a hurricane of 85 mph.

Heavy rainfall, tropical storm force winds will continue tonight, especially near the coast of Belize.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.5N 88.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Late Wednesday Afternoon


Tropicast: Belize radar at landfall


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lisa will weaken rapidly tonight with tropical storm force winds subsiding, especially in inland areas. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain a concern. It will cross over northern Guatemala and into the Bay of Campeche during the next 36 hours.