Earl

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Sat Sep 03, 2022 12:07 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Earl fighting shear
Tropical storm Earl was classified last night as a tropical storm northeast of the northern Leewards. A few heavy showers are possible as it passes. The core of the heaviest rain is to the north.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 62.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will gradually turn northwest over the next several days well east of the U.S. coast and east of the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Sun Sep 04, 2022 5:09 pm

Sunday Late Afternoon Update

Earl still fighting shear
Tropical storm Earl has changed little since yesterday. Wind shear continues to battle the system. The circulation center of Earl can be easily seen on satellite imagery.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 65.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will move northward over the next several days well east of the U.S. coast and east of the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Models now lessen shear and Earl may strengthen significantly several days from now. Interests in Bermuda should follow the progress of this system.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:15 am

Monday Midday Update

Vertical wind shear continues to hamper development
Satellite imagery clearly shows that Earl is still fighting significant westerly vertical wind shear. Deep convection is mainly east / NE of the low level center. Wind speeds have been estimated from the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will stay well east of the U.S. eastern coast but may be in the vicinity or SE of Bermuda by Thursday night. Strengthening is possible as wind shear decreases. Models also diverge several days from today, so speed and location estimates may not be as reliable.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:30 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Little change over the past 24 hours.
Satellite imagery shows that wind shear is beginning to slacken. This will allow additional strengthening, possibly to major hurricane strength.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 65.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will stay well east of the U.S. eastern coast but may be in the vicinity or SE of Bermuda by Thursday night. Strengthening is possible as wind shear decreases. Models also diverge several days from today, so speed and location estimates may not be as reliable.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:35 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Little change over the past 24 hours.
Earl is moving toward a more favorable vertical shear environment which will allow for significant strengthening. Deep convection is the strongest on the NW side of the circulation, but is still not that impressive.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will stay well east of the U.S. eastern coast but may be in the vicinity or SE of Bermuda by Thursday night. Strengthening is likely as wind shear decreases. Earl is expected to become a major hurricane is it bypasses Bermuda to the southeast.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Thu Sep 08, 2022 1:45 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Earl SE of Bermuda
Earl seems to be better organized this afternoon with the strongest part of the eyewall to the northwest of the circulation center. Radar shows a few heavy showers near Bermuda, but the core of the heaviest rainfall remains to the SSE at this time. A gust to 40 mph was recorded earlier today and gusts to hurricane strength are possible as it passes to the east tonight.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 64.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

Tropicast: Bermuda Radar Mid Thursday Afternoon

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl is strengthening as it bypasses Bermuda to the SE tonight.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:41 pm

Tropicast: Bermuda Radar 930 PM AST

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:42 pm

Friday Late Afternoon Update

Earl well NE of Bermuda
Earl moved past and to the southeast of Bermuda Thursday night. It is now picking up forward speed and no longer a threat.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 58.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl is accelerating away from Bermuda and losing tropical characteristics.

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