Delta

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Evening Update

PTC 26

The Weather Situation
I am not a fan of potential tropical cyclones as it is confusing to the public. A circulation has not formed yet, but it is likely to form soon, so now advisories can be started. That is why PTC 26 was classified. A broad area of disorganized heavy showers is over the central Caribbean.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 4:00 PM EDT PTC 26 was centered at 16.7 N / 76.6 W or about 90 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving WNW at 10 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
PTC 26 has been advertised by models for days now. There is a good chance that this system will develop and move into the Gulf over the next several days. Interests especailly over the northern Gulf should follow the progress of PTC 26 (Delta) closely.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Midday Update

Delta organizing in Caribbean

The Weather Situation
A circulation center is now very apparent SSW of Jamaica as well as banding. The system is a tropical storm and additional strengthening is likely.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT Delta was centered at 16.4 N / 78.6 W or about 265 miles SE of Grand Cayman. It was moving west at 7 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta is organizing. There is a good chance that this system will develop and move into the Gulf over the next few days. Interests especially over the northern Gulf should follow the progress of Delta closely. Extended forecast bring Delta as a hurricane near the Louisiana coast by Friday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Morning Update

Delta rapidly intensifying

The Weather Situation
Delta has gone through a rapid intensification and will be a major hurricane soon. It is a small compact system with some banding away from the moat or clear area away from the central dense overcast.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Delta was centered at 17.8 N / 82.0 W or about 370 ESE of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving WNW at 15 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph. Pressure was estimated at 962 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta will make landfall on the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday morning. It will continue NW then turn north ahead of an upper trough. This will take it toward the northcentral Gulf coast, probably Louisiana. Upper air winds are likely to weaken it before landfall, but there is still concern for significant impacts.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Night Update

Delta maxed out

The Weather Situation
Delta has become the fastest tropical cyclone to develop into a cat 4 hurricane from a tropical depression. I'm not sure it's quite at 145 mph. I would say still a cat 4 but I think 145 mph is stretching it. It will still have a devastating impact with wind, surge, and rainfall at landfall.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 PM EDT Delta was centered at 19.2 N / 84.5 W or about 180 ESE of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving WNW at 17 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 145 mph. Pressure was estimated at 956 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta will make landfall on the Yucatan peninsula late tonight. It will continue NW then turn north ahead of an upper trough. This will take it toward the northcentral Gulf coast, probably Louisiana. Upper air winds are likely to weaken it before landfall, but there is still concern for significant impacts from a major hurricane.

Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Evening Update

Delta into the Gulf

The Weather Situation
IMO (and others in Twitterverse) think that Delta was nowhere near 145 mph yesterday. The eyewall basically collapsed before hitting the Yucatan peninsula north of Cozumel around daybreak. Pressure did not support that strong of a hurricane. Many are asking what is going on? Even NHC said the wind speed was generous. Anyhow.... This evening Delta is in the Gulf and strengthening is likely.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Delta was centered at 22.1 N / 89.5 W or about 55 miles NNE of Progreso, Mexico / 580 miles SSE of Cameron, LA. It was moving NW at 17 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 85 mph. Pressure was estimated at 977 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta has trended westward and it is possible that the next landfall will be quite close to the landfall position of Laura on the coast of western Louisiana Friday.

Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Midday Update

Delta strengthening again

The Weather Situation
Water vapor imagery shows that the eye is now about complete again. This will allow for additional strengthening today. All preparedness needs to be finished today well before Delta arrives.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 10:00 AM CDT Delta was centered at 24.0 N / 92.7 W or about 400 miles south of Cameron, LA. It was moving NW at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 968 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta's next landfall will be quite close to the landfall position of Laura on the coast of western Louisiana Friday. Delta should strengthen today, then weaken with increasing wind shear before landfall. Surge, wind damage, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes are possible.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Delta approaching Louisiana

The Weather Situation
Rainbands are already approaching the upper Texas and Louisiana coast. Wind and rainfall intensity will increase rapidly late this morning into the afternoon.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Delta was centered at 27.5 N / 93.8 W or about 160 miles south of Cameron, LA. It was moving north at 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 958 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta will make landfall on the western coast of Louisiana this afternoon. Surge, wind damage, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes are possible.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Delta nearing the western Louisiana coast

The Weather Situation
Delta is going to make landfall in an hour or two just barely east of where Hurricane Laura did not long ago. The heaviest rainfall is east of Houston and over the southern Louisiana coast. The worst of the conditions will last over the next six hours.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Delta was centered at 29.3 N / 93.2 W or about 35 miles south of Cameron, LA. It was moving NNE at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 966 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Delta will move inland tonight into western / central Louisiana and slowly move NE into Mississippi tomorrow. The threat of surge, wind damage, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes will continue in Louisiana this evening.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

Tropicast: Radar after landfall


Tropicast: Wundermap rainfall totals


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday 10/10


Tropicast: Radar estimate