Laura

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Midday Update

TD 13 slowly organizing

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows td13 is slowly organizing. Its ultimate strength will be decided how much it interacts with the northern Antilles.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST TD 13 was centered at 16.0 N / 52.0 W or about 750 miles east of the northern Leewards. It was moving WNW 21 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1008 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD 13 is predicted to move WNW over the next several days. This will take it either over the northern Antilles or just to the north. If it moves north of the northern Antilles it will develop into a stronger tropical cyclone. Interests in the northern Antilles and Florida / southern Bahamas should follow TD 13 closely.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Midday Update

Laura classified

The Weather Situation
Recon has found the center farther south which will have important impacts. Winds have strengthened a touch so the depression was upgraded to storm. Satellite imagery still shows a disorganized system. The main threat to the northern Antilles will be heavy rainfall.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Laura was centered at 17.0 N / 60.2 W or about 210 miles ESE of the northern Leewards. It was moving west 18 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Storm Laura is forecast to become a hurricane once it makes its way to the Gulf of Mexico. If it takes the path over the northern Antilles it is quite possible that it will not survive. There is a wide range of strength possible depending on the exact path. If it stays over water, it's possible to be stronger than the current NHC forecast.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Laura has broad circulation

The Weather Situation
Recon today has found a broad circulation with a number of smaller vorticies. Deep convection has expanded but shear is keeping the west side of the circulation nearly void. This shear is likely induced by the quick low level motion. Very heavy rainfall will cause flash flooding over the northern Antilles during the next few days.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Laura was centered at 17.7 N / 66.0 W or about 50 miles ESE of San Juan Puerto Rico. It was moving west 21 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Storm Laura is still forecast to become a hurricane once it makes its way to the Gulf of Mexico. If it takes the path over the northern Antilles it is quite possible that it will not survive. There is a wide range of strength possible depending on the exact path. If it stays over water, it's possible to be stronger than the current NHC forecast.

The main threat to the northern Antilles is flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening Update

Laura near Mona Passage

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Laura has strengthened slightly today as it produces heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico. It will now have its circulation disrupted badly as it interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Laura was centered at 18.0 N / 68.1 W or about 125 miles ESE of Santo Domingo, D.R. It was moving west 18 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Laura is now expected to make landfall on the north central Gulf coast as a minimal hurricane Wednesday - only two days after Marco makes landfall in a similar location Monday.

The main threat to the northern Antilles is flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update

Laura over Haiti

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery from Laura still looks impressive despite the storm center being over mountainous terrain. Most of the deep convection is near the center and south into the northern Caribbean Sea. Outflow still looks impressive as well.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Laura was centered at 19.1 N / 72.1 W or about 40 miles NNE of Port Au Prince, Haiti. It was moving wnw 18 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The forecast for Laura is moving a bit west again. The GFS still has a landfall over western Louisiana but the Euro now has landfall back toward the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday. It all depends on when the subtropical high builds and how strong it will be.

The main threat to the northern Antilles is flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Evening Update

Laura over Windward Passage

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Laura has held together remarkably well despite encountering land from Hispaniola. It is now about to move over eastern Cuba. Satellite imagery shows plenty of deep convection and good outflow aloft.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Laura was centered at 19.5 N / 75.2 W or about 220 miles SE of Camaguey, Cuba. It was moving wnw 21 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Laura is expected to strengthen into a hurricane shortly after moving into the Gulf of Mexico. It will start to move on a move NW course taking it to the NW Gulf coast from western Louisiana to possibly the upper Texas coast by Wednesday.

The main threat to Cuba is flooding rainfall and some wind gusts to tropical storm force. Rough surf can also be expected.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Morning Update

Laura disorganized

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Laura is south of south central Cuba. This position is farther south than what models were advertising for several days. The strongest convection is well away from the center to the southwest of Grand Cayman.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Laura was centered at 20.9 N / 79.7 W or about 205 miles ESE of Isle of Youth, Cuba. It was moving WNW 21 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Laura is expected to strengthen into a hurricane shortly after moving into the Gulf of Mexico. It will start to move on a move NW course taking it to the NW Gulf coast from western Louisiana to possibly the upper Texas coast by Wednesday.

The main threat to Cuba is flooding rainfall and some wind gusts to tropical storm force. Rough surf can also be expected.

Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Afternoon Update

Laura starting to organize

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Laura is heading toward western Cuba. Very heavy rainfall is the main concern at this time. Heavy surf and tropical storm force winds are also important impacts. The strongest convection is near the Isle of Youth to about 100 miles south.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 2:00 PM EDT Laura was centered at 21.4 N / 81.6 W or about 80 miles east of Isle of Youth, Cuba. It was moving WNW 20 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1001 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Laura is expected to strengthen into a hurricane shortly after moving into the Gulf of Mexico. It will start to move on a move NW course taking it to the NW Gulf coast from western Louisiana to possibly the upper Texas coast by Wednesday. Laura's strength is still uncertain. Some models make it a major hurricane before landfall and other keep it weaker from some shear.

Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday morning Update

Laura now a hurricane

The Weather Situation
As expected, Laura is now a hurricane as it has entered the southern Gulf. A recon found a considerably lower pressure and winds are up too.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 7:15 AM EDT Laura was centered at 23.4 N / 86.4 W or about 625 miles SE of Lake Charles, LA. It was moving WNW 17 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Laura is expected to strengthen and continue to move toward the NW Gulf of Mexico and make landfall as possibly a major hurricane. The mostly likely area of landfall stretches from the western coast of Louisiana to the upper Texas coast. Near and to the east of landfall will experience much higher storm surge and stronger damaging winds. Rainfall of 10" or more is possible.

Rush to complete all hurricane preparedness today before the arrival of tropical storm force winds.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Technical Note
The board had technical issues at the worst possible time not allowing for updates. My updates did continue on Twitter though. Here are the images from the last few days....

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Tuesday Afternoon 8/25


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Wednesday Afternoon 8/26


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Wednesday Evening 8/26


Tropicast: Radar Wednesday Evening 8:45 pm edt 8/26


Tropicast: IR Satellite Thursday Morning 12 am 8/27


Tropicast: Radar Thursday Morning 12:41 am edt 8/27


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Thursday Afternoon 8/27


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Friday Afternoon 8/28