Gonzalo

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Late Morning Update

Gonzalo named

The Weather Situation
If you have been following my tweets, you saw that I suggested that NHC would classify it. That did happen late in the day. Similarly it was apparent that TD 7 would be upgraded to tropical storm this morning. Deep convection and banding indicated that a tropical storm had formed.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 9.9 N / 43.6 W or about 1205 miles east of the southern Windwards. It was moving west at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo is headed in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles in a few days, possibly as a hurricane. At this time it appears that more hostile conditions will be encountered in the Caribbean for continued strengthening.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Evening Update

Gonzalo organizing

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows that deep convection has expanded around the core of the tropical cyclone. Further strengthening is expected.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 9.9 N / 43.6 W or about 1110 miles east of the southern Windwards. It was moving west at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo is headed in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles in a few days, possibly as a hurricane. At this time it appears that more hostile conditions will be encountered in the Caribbean for continued strengthening.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update

Gonzalo more disorganized

The Weather Situation
Despite winds being "upped" to 65 mph, it is my opinion that Gonzalo has weakened. There is only one small cluster of deep convection south of the center and a large area well west. It appears that dry air and possibly some shear is affecting the circulation. IMO top sustained surface winds are no more than 50 mph.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 9.8 N / 47.9 W or about 1110 miles east of the southern Windwards. It was moving west at 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 997 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo is headed in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles in a few days, possibly as a hurricane. At this time it appears that more hostile conditions will be encountered in the Caribbean for continued strengthening. Hurricane watches have been posted for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Gonzalo still not impressive

The Weather Situation
NHC took winds down to 60 mph late this afternoon. In there advisory they suggest that winds could be lower as was stated here. It appeared to me that there may have been more than one circulation inside a larger center.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 9.8 N / 49.4 W or about 810 miles east of the southern Windwards. It was moving west at 13 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo is headed in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles in a few days, possibly as a hurricane. At this time it appears that more hostile conditions will be encountered in the Caribbean for continued strengthening. Hurricane watches have been posted for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Gonzalo fighting dry air

The Weather Situation
A recon is scheduled to investigate Gonzalo later today. IMO, despite an overall better appearance than yesterday is that Gonzalo is probably closer to a 50 mph tropical storm. It is a very small TC and and quite a low latitude for this far west.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 10.0 N / 52.8 W or about 580 miles east of the southern Windwards. It was moving west at 15 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo is headed in the general direction of the southern Lesser Antilles in a about another day or day and a half. NHC still has it becoming a minimal hurricane, but I would not be surprised at all if it's considerably weaker. Still, stay vigilant in the southern Windwards for the potential of a minimal hurricane.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Gonzalo barely a storm

The Weather Situation
The recon barely found tropical storm force winds in Gonzalo. Another recon is enroute. Will it still find a storm? Gonzalo remains extremely far south.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 10.0 N / 55.6 W or about 390 miles east of the southern Windwards. It was moving west at 18 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1008 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo is well south. It not out of the question to hit Trinidad and northern South America. Will it still be a storm when it arrives?

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Gonzalo heading to Trinidad

The Weather Situation
One doesn't see this very often. The southern Windwards are going to take a direct hit from a tropical storm - albeit from a minimal one.The greatest impact will be from heavy rainfall and some winds to minimal tropical storm force.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered at 10.3 N / 59.8 W or about 100 miles east of Trinidad. It was moving west at 18 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1009 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Gonzalo will make a direct hit on Trinidad today and then dissipate in the Central Caribbean.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Afternoon Update

Gonzalo now a depression

The Weather Situation
Gonzalo has been downgraded to a depression as of 2 pm edt. It will degenerate into a wave soon as squally weather continues across northern South America.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx


Tropicast: Visible Satellite