Fay

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Fay classified

The Weather Situation
Recon has confirmed that tropical storm Fay has formed east of North Carolina. A new low center formed early this afternoon ENE of Cape Hatteras. The TC is sheared and is fighting dry air to the west. Despite this, very heavy rainfall is possible along the coast.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Fay was centered at 35.5 N / 74.9 W or 40 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras, NC. It was moving north at 7 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Fay will make landfall along the New Jersey to New York City coast late Friday into tomorrow night. The greatest threat is from flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: water Vapor Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Fay looking subtropical

The Weather Situation
Deep convection is void near the center of circulation of Fay. The recon is finding the strongest winds away from the center to the northeast. This system should be reclassified as subtropical.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Fay was centered at 37.6 N / 74.7 W or about 85 miles SSE of Ocean City, MD. It was moving north at 10 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 999 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Fay will make landfall along the New Jersey to New York City coast later this evening into tonight. The greatest threat is from flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Philadelphia Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Afternoon Update

Fay making landfall soon

The Weather Situation
The center of Tropical Storm Fay is embedded in a larger circulation. The smaller core of the low should make landfall by around 4PM to 4:30PM EDT on the New Jersey coast around Little Egg Harbor. The heaviest rainfall is preceding the low and is well NW and north of the low center. Personally, I think that 60 mph is an overestimate. There may be some gusts well offshore in deep convection that are approaching this speed.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 2:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Fay was centered at 38.8 N / 74.5 W or about 140 miles south of New York City. It was moving north at 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 998 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Fay will be inland shortly, but the threat of heavy rainfall of 3-4" or more will exist into southern New England tonight. There may be some wind gusts 25-35 mph, but the tropical storm force gusts will probably be mostly offshore.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: New York City Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

b]Friday Evening Update[/b]

Fay makes landfall north of Atlantic City

.... close to Little Egg Harbor. Rainfall amounts from eastern Maryland to New York City were in the 2-5" range. A total near 9" was reported near eastern Delaware. Rainfall was well underestimated by doppler radar.

Tropicast: radar estimate


Tropicast: radar estimate