Christobal

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Morning Update

TD 3

The Weather Situation
The system which was tropical storm Amanda in the Pacific weakened over land a few days ago and was declared dissipated by the National Hurricane Center. Despite this, at least at mid level, if not the low level circulation could be tracked. IMO, if (when) this tropical cyclone is upgraded to a tropical storm it will be named Christobal instead of keeping its name from the Pacific.

The main hazards at this time are heavy, flooding rains over southern Mexico. Current satellite imagery shows very heavy convection over the Yucatan.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT TD3 was centered at 19.6 N / 92.2 W or 125 miles west of Campeche, Mexico. It was moving west at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1003 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm then weaken over the Yucatan. Either this system or another will reform north of the Yucatan later this week. Interests on the Gulf coast should follow this situation.


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday


Tropicast: IR Satellite Tuesday Morning

[Tropical Inspector]

Current tropical weather
TD3 was upgraded to tropical storm strength - 40 mph - at 11:15 CDT


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday Noon

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Late Afternoon Update

Christobal weakening

The Weather Situation
TD3 was upgraded shortly after yesterday's update. It gained strength to 60 mph and moved inland near Cuidad del Carmen, Mexico this morning. It is now weakening but a threat for flooding rainfall continues over the Yucatan.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Christobal was centered at 18.3 N / 91.8 W or 20 miles south of Cuidad del Carmen, Mexico. It was moving southeast at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 995 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Christobal will further weaken then move north into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts restrengthen it as it moves toward the northern Gulf coast by later this weekend.


Tropicast: Radar


Tropicast: Visible Satellite g

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Midday Update

Christobal now a depression

The Weather Situation
As my twitter update last hour suggested, Christobal is now a depression officially. Look for localized heavy flooding rainfall to continue today.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 10:00 AM CDT Christobal was centered at 17.6 N / 91.0 W or 160 miles south southwest of Campeche, Mexico. It was moving east southeast at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 998 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts restrengthen Christobal as it moves toward the northern Gulf coast by later this weekend.

Tropicast: Radar


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Midday Update

Christobal moving toward the Gulf

The Weather Situation
Very heavy rainfall has shifted toward the northeast portion of the Yucatan. The low center will move offshore later today.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 10:00 AM CDT Christobal was centered at 20.0 N / 89.9 W or 40 miles east of Campeche, Mexico. It was moving north at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 30 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts restrengthen Christobal as it moves toward the northern Gulf coast by later this weekend. The system is asymmetrical and the heaviest rainfall, surge, wind will be on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Christobal back in the Gulf

The Weather Situation
Christobal has moved into the Gulf a short while ago. The heaviest convection is well northeast of the center. Heavy rainfall of 4+" is possible from western Florida to eastern Louisiana.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Christobal was centered at 21.4 N / 89.7 W or 535 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi river. It was moving north at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts restrengthen Christobal as it moves toward the northern Gulf coast by later this weekend, but not quite to hurricane strength. The system is asymmetrical and the heaviest rainfall, surge, wind will be on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Christobal in mid Gulf

The Weather Situation
Christobal is clearly very asymmetric and is fighting wind shear and dry air. The low center is nearly void of convection. Very heavy rain will precede the low center. Water rise of generally 1-3" will be well to the east of the landfall location. See the NHC advisory for surge information. The strongest tropical storm force winds will be mostly confined in the squalls with the banding well north and east of the low.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Christobal was centered at 23.9 N / 90.2 W or 365 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi river. It was moving north at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 992 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts restrengthen Christobal as it moves toward the northern Gulf coast by later this weekend, but not quite to hurricane strength. The system is asymmetrical and the heaviest rainfall, surge, wind will be on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday afternoon Update

Christobal sucking in dry air

The Weather Situation
I'm not seeing 50 mph for Christobal. Most of the buoy data suggesting gusts to 35 knots and the SFMR from recon showing a little under 40 knots. There may be some gusts to 50 mph under the deepest convection,but surface sustained seems to be more like 40 / 45 mph.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 1:00 PM CDT Christobal was centered at 24.7 N / 90.2 W or 310 miles south southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi river. It was moving north at 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 992 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Christobal will move toward the northern Gulf coast by Sunday afternoon, with little change in strength. The system is asymmetrical and the heaviest rainfall, surge, wind will be on the eastern side of the circulation.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Night Update

Christobal shows little change

The Weather Situation
The large are of squally weather over the eastern Gulf has moved into the Florida peninsula over the past several hours. Very heavy rainfall of over 5" was estimated by doppler radar. In addition, the squalls lead to a number of tornado warnings, including one in Orlando.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 10:00 PM CDT Christobal was centered at 26.2 N / 90.2 W or 210 miles south southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi river. It was moving north at 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 993 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts take Christobal near the Louisiana coast by Sunday afternoon with little change in strength. It may drift a little west before landfall, then continue inland over Louisana.

Tropicast: Radar


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Midday Update

Christobal just offshore

The Weather Situation
IMO Christobal is more likely a 40 /45 mph subtropical storm. Checking latest data including buoys shows little support for surface sustained winds of 50 mph which should have gusts to at least 60 - 65 mph. Most winds are in the 25-35 mph range with gusts to 40-45 mph. The most common effects have been very heavy rain squalls, especially in Florida yesterday evening and water rise of mostly 1-3 feet.

It also appears that Christobal has stalled. There appears to be a main low center in a larger gyre. The northerly motion will likely continue in a few hours.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 10:00 AM CDT Christobal was centered at 28.7 N / 90.0 W or 90 miles south of New Orleans. It was moving north at 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts take Christobal near the Louisiana coast by this afternoon with little change in strength. It will then pick up speed and become extratropical as heavy rainfall moves up the Mississippi Valley toward the western Great Lakes.

Tropicast: Radar


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Afternoon Update


The Weather Situation
A few rainfall doppler estimates:

Tropicast: Southwest Mississippi


Tropicast: Eastern Louisiana / Southern Mississippi


Tropicast: Florida Panhandle / Southeast Alabama / Southwest Georgia


For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx