Dorian

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening Update

Dorian heading toward the Islands

The Weather Situation
Dorian is gradually organizing. This trend is expected to continue as it heads toward the Islands.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Dorian was centered at 10.7 N / 49.1 W or 725 miles ESE of Barbados. It was moving west at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1008 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Dorian is forecast to gradually strengthen and move into the Caribbean. It will approach the Islands by Tuesday and Puerto Rico / Dominican Republic by Thursday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday Afternoon

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Evening Update

Dorian near Barbados

The Weather Situation
A reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Dorian.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM AST Dorian was centered at 13.0 N / 59.1 W or 30 miles ESE of Barbados. It was moving WNW at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Dorian is now moving into the Lesser Antilles it may strengthen to hurricane strength before affecting Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday Afternoon

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Evening Update

Dorian heading toward Puerto Rico

The Weather Situation
Dorian has not changed much in strength over the last 24 hours. It is fighting dry air which has kept it from strengthening.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM AST Dorian was centered at 15.8 N / 62.7 W or 300 miles SE of Ponce, Puerto Rico. It was moving WNW at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Dorian is forecast to move past western Puerto Rico and eastern Dominican Republic. It will then moved toward the central Bahamas and possible into east - central Florida. Strength is uncertain at this time due to interaction with dry air and with Hispaniola.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Tuesday Afternoon

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Morning Update

Dorian heading toward Puerto Rico

The Weather Situation
Dorian is organizing a bit is looks more symmetrical. Radar shows very heavy rainfall moving over St. Croix. Some wind damage and power outages are possible, but the main effect will likely be heavy rainfall of 5"+ in the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Dorian was centered at 17.1 N / 64.1 W or 60 miles SE of St. Croix. It was moving NW at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1003 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Dorian is near the Virgin Islands and is forecast to move through the central Bahamas and near the northeast Florida coast then northward near or just offshore of the Georgia / South and North Carolina coasts before heading back out to sea. Models have been trending slightly east over the past 24 hours.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Wednesday Morning


Tropicast: Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands Radar 9 AM AST

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Evening Update

Dorian strengthening

The Weather Situation
Dorian is now moving north of the Virgin Islands It will be over warm water with less shear which will be favorable for significant strengthening.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Dorian was centered at 18.8 N / 65.5 W or 45 miles NW of St. Thomas. It was moving NW at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 997 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Dorian is now forecast to move farther west and become a major hurricane. Models deviate later in the period. The official NHC forecast is in the middle of both solutions, taking it into the east central coast of Florida late this weekend.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Wednesday Evening

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Dorian in the open waters north of Puerto Rico

The Weather Situation
Dorian has not strengthened much today. Two eyewalls have formed and and during replacement cycles tropical cyclones tend to weaken some or remain at similar strength.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Dorian was centered at 22.5 N / 67.7 W or 330 miles SE of SE Bahamas. It was moving NW at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 85 mph. Pressure was estimated at 986 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts models are consistent on the first few days of its pathway. As Dorian approaches the eastern Florida coast speed and location begin to differ. At this time it is possible that it may strengthen to a category 4 hurricane.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Thursday Afternoon

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Dorian strengthens rapidly

The Weather Situation
With less shear and warmer water, Dorian has strengthened rapidly. It is a dangerous category 3 hurricane now.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM AST Dorian was centered at 25.3 N / 71.0 W or 575 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL. It was moving WNW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph. Pressure was estimated at 950 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecasts models now slowing Dorian which may allow it to turn north, farther east. There is now the possibility that it may turn just before making landfall. Stay vigilant of any additional changes.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Friday Late Afternoon


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Friday Late Afternoon

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Midday Update

Dorian continues to strengthen

The Weather Situation
Shear continues to decrease and Dorian remains in a favorable environment of slight strengthening or remaining at current strength.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Dorian was centered at 26.0 N / 73.4 W or 415 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL. It was moving west at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 150 mph. Pressure was estimated at 945 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are now more consistent keeping Dorian east of the eastern Florida coast. It may come close to the South or North Carolina coast by the middle of next week. Stay vigilant of any additional changes.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday Midday

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update

Dorian Nearing the northern Bahamas as cat 5

The Weather Situation
Aircraft recon found winds in Dorian up to 175 mph last night, but rightfully kept it at 150 mph sustained winds. A 150 mph hurricane will have gusts well in excess of 150 mph. Good job NHC! Dorian is expected to nearly stall over the northern Bahamas during the next 24-36 hours. This will bring life threatening conditions to the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island.

Pressure has dropped significantly this morning so Dorian has been upgraded to a cat 5.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Dorian was centered at 26.5 N / 76.5 W or 35 miles east of Great Abaco Island, 225 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL. It was moving west at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 160 mph. Pressure was estimated at 927 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue keeping Dorian east of the eastern Florida coast. It may come close to the South or North Carolina coast by the middle of next week. Stay vigilant of any additional changes.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday Evening


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday Evening


Tropicast: IR Satellite Sunday Morning

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Midday Update

Dorian in rare territory

The Weather Situation
Aircraft recon has founds winds up to 204 mph early this afternoon. Winds should be expected to be stronger in gusts with sustained winds at 180 mph. Catastrophic damage is expected over the northern Bahamas. Pressure continues to drop indicating strengthening. A very recent pressure showed 908 mb.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT Dorian was centered at 26.5 N / 76.8 W or 20 miles ENE of Great Abaco Island, 205 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL. It was moving west at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph. Pressure was estimated at 913 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue keeping Dorian east of the eastern Florida coast. It may come close to the South or North Carolina coast by the middle of next week. This morning's models take Dorian close to the NC coast by Thursday. Stay vigilant of any additional changes.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Sunday Midday


Tropicast: Visible close-up Satellite Sunday Morning

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Morning Update

Dorian has stalled

The Weather Situation
The lowest official pressure from Dorian occurred later yesterday afternoon at 910 mb. Since then, pressure has risen a little and winds are now dropping. It is still a very dangerous category 5 hurricane. IR Satellite still shows a very well defined eye over central Grand Bahama Island and excellent outflow aloft, especially to the east.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Dorian was centered at 26.7 N / 78.2 W or 35 miles ENE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island / 120 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL. It was moving west at 1 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 165 mph. Pressure was estimated at 916 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models again keep Dorian east of the Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts. It will be very close to the North Carolina coast by Thursday and Thursday night. It will come close enough that heavy rain, high water and winds possibly over hurricane force could affect the coast from Florida northward to eastern North Carolina. Stay vigilant of any additional changes. Any slight change to the west could bring significantly worse conditions inland.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Sunday Afternoon


Tropicast: IR Satellite Monday Morning


Tropicast: Radar Monday Morning 7:45 AM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Evening Update

Dorian has stalled again

The Weather Situation
After briefly stalling this morning, Dorian started a very slow WNW turn. It has now stalled again. Pressure has risen considerably today indicating weakening. The big problem is that Dorian is still a very dangerous cat 4 hurricane which continues to pound Grand Bahama Island. Conditions will not improve until Dorian resumes a northward motion - which still may be several hours away. This is the worst hurricane on record experienced in the northern Bahamas.

Twitter updates here: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Dorian was centered at 26.8 N / 78.4 W or 25 miles NE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island / 105 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL. Stationary. Top sustained winds are estimated at 145 mph. Pressure was estimated at 940 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
No significant changes to the forecast track -

Forecast models again keep Dorian east of the Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts. It will be very close to the North Carolina coast by Thursday and Thursday night. It will come close enough that heavy rain, high water and winds possibly over hurricane force could affect the coast from Florida northward to eastern North Carolina. Stay vigilant of any additional changes. Any slight change to the west could bring significantly worse conditions inland.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday Afternoon


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday Evening


Tropicast: Radar Monday Evening 5:18 PM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Morning Update

Dorian continues weakening

The Weather Situation
Dorian continues to weaken and is just starting to slowly move away from Grand Bahama Island. Pressure has continued to rise overnight indicating this weakening. Grand Bahama Island should be getting out of the eyewall this morning. Catastropic damage has occurred there and over the Abacos.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Dorian was centered at 27.1 N / 78.4 W or 40 miles NE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island / 110 miles ENE of West Palm Beach, FL. It was moving NW at 1 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 952 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to keep Dorian east of Florida. It appears that the closest approach to land will be eastern North Carolina on Thursday. Stay vigilant of any additional changes. Any slight change to the west could bring significantly worse conditions inland.

Tropicast: IR Satellite Tuesday Morning


Tropicast: Radar Tuesday Morning 7:55 AM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Evening Update

Dorian is now moving again

The Weather Situation
Dorian has finally started to move away from the northern Bahamas. Winds have now started to gust to tropical storm force on the east central coast of Florida.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Dorian was centered at 27.7 N / 78.7 W or 125 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral, FL. It was moving NW at 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph. Pressure was estimated at 959 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to keep Dorian east of Florida. It appears that the closest approach to land will be eastern South and North Carolina. Stay vigilant of any additional changes. Any slight change to the west could bring significantly worse conditions inland.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Tuesday Evening


Tropicast: Radar Tuesday Evening 8:25 PM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Morning Update

Dorian staying east of Florida

The Weather Situation
The east coast of Florida has been largely spared by Dorian. Winds have gusted to tropical storm force at times. Dorian continues to very slowly weaken. The eye is much larger now and tropical forces winds have spread much farther from the center than a few days ago - 100-150 miles from the center. IMO the hurricane is probably closer to 95-100 mph.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Dorian was centered at 29.5 N / 79.6 W or 95 miles ENE of Daytona Beach, FL / 135 miles ESE of Jacksonville, FL. It was moving NNW at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 964 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models show Dorian staying east of Florida and Georgia and approaching the coast of South and North Carolina tomorrow into early Friday. Stay vigilant of any additional changes. Any slight change to the west could bring significantly worse conditions inland.

Tropicast: IR Satellite Wednesday Morning


Tropicast: Radar Wednesday Morning 7:30 AM EDT