Lane

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Lane classified

The Weather Situation
Lane is in the open waters of the eastern Pacific.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM MDT Tropical Storm Lane was centered at 10.7 N / 123.6 W or 1235 miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja. It was moving west at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lane is no threat to Mexico and is still well east of Hawaii. It is expected to strengthen for the next several days.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Lane south of the Big Island

The Weather Situation
Lane is passing well south of the Big Island At this time the main effects will be rough surf, squall bands and gusty winds. The strongest winds are forecast to stay south of the central and western Hawaiian Islands. Land did reach 160 mph on the previous advisory briefly making it a category 5 hurricane. Pressure had dropped down to 929 mb at one point.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM HST Hurricane Lane was centered at 15.1 N / 155.3 W or 460 miles SSE of Honolulu. It was moving WNW at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph. Pressure was estimated at 935 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lane is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves northward. A gradual turn toward the west is expected south of Oahu. This should keep the strongest effects south of the Islands.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Tuesday


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Wednesday

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Evening Update

Lane turning

The Weather Situation
Lane is starting to turn more northwest. It's central dense overcast (CDO) is very small with hurricane force winds extending out only 40 miles from the center. If Lane stays on course the worst conditions will stay south of the Islands. Still high surf, heavy rainfall / mudslides are possible. Squalls of tropical storm force winds and possibly hurricane force may be seen on the Islands depending on how close Lane moves to land.

A reconnaissance aircraft is currently on its way to bring us the latest observations.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11 AM HST Hurricane Lane was centered at 15.5 N / 155.9 W or 420 miles SSE of Honolulu. It was moving WNW at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph. Pressure was estimated at 935 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lane is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves northward. A gradual turn toward the west is expected south of Oahu. This should keep the strongest effects south of the Islands.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Water Vapor Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update

Lane slowly approaching Islands


The Weather Situation
There has been no recent reconnaissance information on Lane. Satellite imagery shows some drier air to the southwest of the center. Some SW wind shear has also obscured the eye at this time. Very heavy rainfall is a large concern. This will cause a flash flooding and mudslide threat. Winds are expected to weaken, but will still likely to cause tropical storm winds and possibly hurricane force.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM HST Hurricane Lane was centered at 16.5 N / 157.3 W or 335 miles south of Honolulu. It was moving NW at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 130 mph. Pressure was estimated at 949 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lane is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves northward. A gradual turn toward the west is expected south of Oahu. This should keep the strongest effects south of the Islands.

Tropicast: Water Vapor Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Lane slightly weaker

The Weather Situation
Lane remains a major hurricane despite its slow weakening. It moved over a buoy south of the Islands earlier today. The top winds recorded were 107 mph. It's possible that the winds have been overestimated, but it is also possible that the max winds did not directly pass over the buoy.

Flooding rainfall and tropical storm force winds are still a concern. The worst effects will likely be over mountain slopes where orographics enhance wind and rain.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM HST Hurricane Lane was centered at 17.5 N / 157.8 W or 275 miles south of Honolulu. It was moving NNW at 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph. Pressure was estimated at 953 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lane is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves northward. A gradual turn toward the west is expected south of Oahu. This should keep the strongest effects south of the Islands.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Lane brings flooding rainfall

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows that the shear has shifted and is now more easterly.. The deepest convection and heaviest rainfall rates are to the west of the center offshore. Still, very heavy rainfall is likely over the Islands. Flooding and mudslides are the greatest concern. It is my opinion that Lane's top sustained winds are not as strong as the official advisory. We do not have reconnaissance aircraft reports, but satellite imagery suggests a weaker category 2 hurricane.

Buoys from the south shore of Oahu show winds gusting to around 25 mph and wave heights to about 7 feet.

Flooding rainfall and tropical storm force winds worst effects will likely be over mountain slopes where orographics enhance wind and rain.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM HST / 8 AM EDT Hurricane Lane was centered at 18.4 N / 158.0 W or 200 miles south of Honolulu. It was moving north at 5 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 956 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The forecast still calls for Lane to turn to the west, south of the Islands. The greatest threat to the Islands is flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Afternoon Update

Lane slowing

The Weather Situation
Lane has been fighting some wind shear, but it appears to be weakening some today. Water temperatures are around 81°- 82° F . With the slow forward motion, it is possible that upwelling and heavy rainfall near the core is cooling the water enough to rob some the of the potential energy from Lane.

A wind gust to 51 mph was registered at Wiamea on the Big Island. Heavy rainfall is now occurring over Molokai and Maui.

Flooding rainfall and tropical storm force winds worst effects will likely be over mountain slopes where orographics enhance wind and rain.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM HST / 2 PM EDT Hurricane Lane was centered at 18.8 N / 158.0 W or 170 miles south of Honolulu. It was moving north at 2 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 964 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The forecast still calls for Lane to turn to the west, south of the Islands. The greatest threat to the Islands is flooding rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Lane deteriorating - still producing very heavy rainfall

The Weather Situation
Wind shear has picked over over the past several hours and has greatly damaged the circulation of Lane. Deep convection is trying to rebuild over the center over the past hour. The heaviest rainfall is over the Big Island (Hawaii) and the eastern part of Maui. It is IMO that the top winds are lower than the official advisory, possibly near 50 mph.

Even though the circulation has weakened, life threatening rainfall is still a great concern, especially over the eastern half of the Hawaiian Islands. Radar has estimated over 40" of rainfall over the windward slopes of the Big Island.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11 PM HST / 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Lane was centered at 19.4 N / 158.5 W or 135 miles SSW of Honolulu. It was moving NNW at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 992 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Lane will drift west and deteriorate over the next 24 hours.

Tropicast: Hawaii Radar 7:30 AM EDT


Tropicast: IR Satellite