Beryl

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Beryl a bit of a surprise

The Weather Situation
Beryl is a very small tropical cyclone. It is embedded in some fairly dry air.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Tropical storm Beryl was centered at 10.3 N / 42.8 W or 1295 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving west at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Beryl will track generally west toward the Lesser Antilles over the next few days. Strengthening is expected in the short term before shear increases. Weakening is likely before reaching the Antilles, but interests in the area should keep abreast of the situation.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Beryl badly sheared

The Weather Situation
Beryl was upgraded to hurricane strength yesterday from its satellite Dvorak intensity estimate. There is a question of its actual strength as its cdo was extremely small and it is unknown if Dvorak estimates hold up on this type of "micro" hurricane.

Satellite imagery show that there is shear on the northern side of the circulation. Convection is also not as organized. Because of this I don't believe that Beryl is a hurricane.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Beryl was centered at 11.7 N / 50.3 W or 780 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving west at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph (75 mph NHC) Pressure was estimated at 995 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Beryl is weakening rapidly and may not survive much longer.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Friday Afternoon


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday Morning

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening Update

Beryl struggling

The Weather Situation
A massive amount of Saharan dust is apparent east and northeast of Beryl. The tiny circulation has been exposed today and in reality is likely barely holding on as a tropical storm. Beryl has picked up speed, increasing the shear.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Beryl was centered at 12.7 N / 52.7 W or 605 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving WNW at 17 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph (50 mph NHC) Pressure was estimated at 1003 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Beryl is weakening rapidly and may not survive much longer.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite dust from Africa


Tropicast: Visible Satellite close - up of low center

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update

Beryl disorganized

The Weather Situation
Beryl is approaching the Lesser Antilles. The low level circulation appears weak on the visible satellite imagery and has been confirmed by the recon. It's possible that Beryl is not a tropical storm any longer. NHC will will onto tropical storm status for a bit longer as deep convection still remains associated with the cyclone.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Beryl was centered at 14.7 N / 56.8 W or 285 miles east of Barbados. It was moving WNW at 20 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Beryl will be declassified either later today or early tomorrow.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

This will be the last update on Beryl. It is probably no longer a tropical storm and should degenerate as it crosses Dominica this evening. Some wind gusts to 40-45 mph are possible.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update

Beryl returns

The Weather Situation
Beryl reorganized into a Subtropical Storm yesterday. It will become a remnant low again soon.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Beryl was centered at 38.3 N / 65.2 W or 445 miles south of Halifax, NS. It was moving NE at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1010 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Beryl will be declassified either later today or early tomorrow.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Saturday Afternoon



Tropicast: Visible Satellite Sunday Morning