Harvey

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Afternoon Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 almost a storm

The Weather Situation
Potential Tropical Cyclone will likely be named tropical storm Harvey later today or tonight. Deep convection is increasing and a low level circulation is apparent.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2:00 PM AST Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 was centered at 13.1 N / 55.1 W or 295 miles east of Barbados. It was moving west at 17 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
PTC 9 will affect the Lesser Antilles tomorrow then move into the Caribbean where there is potential for additional strengthening.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Harvey brings heavy rains to Windwards

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Harvey was upgraded yesterday evening. Heavy rainfall is pushing into the eastern Caribbean. The heaviest showers range from south of Martinique to north or Grenada. Rainfall totals range from 4.4" in northern Barbados to 2.3" in St. Lucia.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Tropical Storm Harvey was centered at 13.0 N / 60.3 W or 55 miles west of Barbados. It was moving west at 18 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will continue through the central Caribbean Sea the next several days and make landfall in Central America by early next week.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Harvey fighting shear

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to fight northeasterly wind shear, exposing the center of circulation some. It remains a weak tropical storm. The heaviest rain / storms are to the north and west of the center.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 10:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Harvey was centered at 13.8 N / 67.6 W or 115 miles NNE of Curacao. It was moving west at 21 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will continue through the central Caribbean Sea the next several days and make landfall in Central America by early next week.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


National Hurricane Center Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/190841.shtml?

National Hurricane Center Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

[Tropical Inspector]

As of 5 pm EDT Harvey was downgraded to a tropical depression. It is possible for some strengthening before landfall in Central America.

[Tropical Inspector]

Harvey is redeveloping in the Bay of Campeche this morning and advisories will likely be re initiated at 10 AM CDT.

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Morning Update

Harvey reforms

The Weather Situation
Harvey is now over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and has reformed. It will strengthen as it moves toward the NW.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 10:00 AM CDT Tropical Depression Harvey was centered at 21.5 N / 92.5 W or 470 miles SE of Port Mansfield, Texas. It was moving NW at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will continue NW toward the Texas coast and is predicted to strengthen before reaching the coast. It will then stall with weak steering currents. Because of this, flooding rainfall is a major concern. By early next week Harvey will start to move east / ENE into Louisiana.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update

Harvey strengthening

The Weather Situation
Harvey is organizing quickly and I would not be surprised if it is a hurricane by early this afternoon. Outflow aloft appears strong and deep convection has wrapped around the center. Harvey will pose a serious flooding threat to SE Texas with widespread 10-15" amounts with much more possible. Now is the time to prepare and plan. Storm surge and wind damage will also be a concern, especially near and north of landfall which is predicted to be near the central Texas coast.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Tropical Storm Harvey was centered at 23.8 N / 93.0 W or 335 miles SE of Port Mansfield, Texas. It was moving NNW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 986 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will continue NW toward the Texas coast and is predicted to strengthen before reaching the coast. It will then stall with weak steering currents. Because of this, flooding rainfall is a major concern. By early next week Harvey will start to move east / ENE into Louisiana. Landfall is predicted to by Friday night.

Tropicast: IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Afternoon Update

Harvey a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Air force reconnaissance aircraft has found an eye wall and a much stronger Harvey. Harvey will now likely make landfall as a major hurricane on the central Texas coast... the first one in an unrepresented 12 years. Wilma was the last, making landfall in south Florida in 2005.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 1:00 PM CDT Hurricane Harvey was centered at 24.4 N / 93.6 W or 325 miles SSE of Port OConnor, Texas. It was moving NNW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 85 mph. Pressure was estimated at 979 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will continue NW toward the Texas coast and is predicted to continue to strengthen before reaching the coast. It will then stall with weak steering currents. Because of this, flooding rainfall is a major concern. By early next week Harvey will start to move east / ENE into Louisiana. Landfall is predicted to by Friday night.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Harvey a dangerous hurricane

The Weather Situation
Harvey has strengthened significantly over night and will make landfall on the central Texas coast tonight. All preparations should be rushed to completion this morning. Hazards include, storm surge where the eye comes onshore and north of that location, devastating flooding with up to 30"+ possible, wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Hurricane Harvey was centered at 26.3 N / 95.8 W or 140 miles SE of Corpus Christi, Texas. It was moving NW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph. Pressure was estimated at 950 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will make landfall on the central Texas coast tonight. It will then stall as it moves slowly inland this weekend. It will drift south again to near the coast and eventually move NE along the coast toward Louisiana by next Tuesday or Wednesday. Harvey's strength will depend if it actually drifts back over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where it could restrenghten.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Brownsville, Texas Radar 7:30 AM CDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Harvey will be first major hurricane to make landfall in 12 years

The Weather Situation
Harvey has strengthened to a major hurricane and will make landfall later this evening. Winds on the coast are at tropical storm force and will be over hurricane force in a few hours.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Hurricane Harvey was centered at 27.5 N / 96.5 W or 60 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas. It was moving NW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph. Pressure was estimated at 941 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will make landfall on the central Texas coast tonight. It will then stall as it moves slowly inland this weekend. It will drift south again to near the coast and eventually move NE along the coast toward Louisiana by next Tuesday or Wednesday. Harvey's strength will depend if it actually drifts back over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where it could restrengthen.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Corpus Christi, Texas Radar 4:00 PM CDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Night Update

Harvey category 4

The Weather Situation
Harvey continues to strengthen just before landfall. It is very fortunate that the eventual landfall location is not heavily populated. Storm surge, damaging winds, flooding rainfall and tornadoes with remain a threat into tomorrow.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 PM CDT Hurricane Harvey was centered at 27.8 N / 96.8 W or 30 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. It was moving NW at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 130 mph. Pressure was estimated at 941 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey will make landfall on the central Texas coast during the next few hours. It will then stall as it moves slowly inland this weekend. It will drift south again to near the coast and eventually move NE along the coast toward Louisiana by next Tuesday or Wednesday. Harvey's strength will depend if it actually drifts back over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where it could restrengthen.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Corpus Christi, Texas Radar 7:30 PM CDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Landfall occurring on San Jose Island - east of Rockport, Texas @ 9:30PM CDT


Tropicast: Corpus Christi, Texas Radar 9:30 PM CDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Harvey inland, bringing heavy rainfall

The Weather Situation
Harvey has moved inland officially at 10 PM CDT and its legacy for bringing flooding rainfall is well under way with up to 10" measure so far. At this point the top gust was at Aransas Pass with winds to 102 mph / gusting to 132 mph. This is well below the supposed category 4 strength of 130 mph. Sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts to 150 should have been measured. The hurricane hunters measure stronger winds aloft, but many times winds will not translate all the way to the surface. It will be interesting to see if any sustained winds to 130 at found in post analysis.

The highest water above mean water level was at Port Lavaca on the central coast at 6.4 feet.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Hurricane Harvey was centered at 28.7 N / 97.2 W or 20 miles WSW of Victoria, Texas. It was moving NNW at 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 975 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey is slowing moving inland. It will drift south again to near the coast by Monday night and eventually move NE into eastern Texas as it weakens. Harvey's strength will depend if it actually drifts back over the Gulf of Mexico Monday where it could restrengthen.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Corpus Christi, Texas Radar 7:00 AM CDT


National Hurricane Center Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/261152.shtml?

National Hurricane Center Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening Update

Harvey stalled

The Weather Situation
Harvey has stalled in De Witt county, Texas west of the town of Cuero. Heavy rainfall has been falling all day east of San Antonio to Bastrop to near College Station. Water vapor imagery shows the highest moisture east and NE of the center of circulation.

Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm at 1 pm CDT. Flooding rainfall and isolated tornadoes can be expected over the next 2-3 days. Rainfall amounts may exceed 30". This continues to be a very dangerous situation.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tropical Storm Harvey was centered at 29.1 N / 97.6 W or 60 miles ESE of San Antonio, Texas. It was stationary. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 990 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey has stalled. It will drift south again Sunday and may linger in the same area before dissipating by Wednesday or Thursday. Harvey's strength will depend if it actually drifts back over the Gulf of Mexico Monday where it could restrengthen some.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Water Vapor


Tropicast: Corpus Christi, Texas Radar 4:00 PM CDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Evening Update

Harvey continues to pound SE Texas with flooding


The Weather Situation
Harvey will have its name retired. It will go down a one of the U.S.'s worst hurricanes in terms of flooding and tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of more than 40" are possible in SE Texas before it dissipates several days from now. There have been 1000's of water rescues in Houston, Texas and Hobby airport is closed through at least Wednesday. There also have been many reports of tornadoes.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 1:00 PM CDT Tropical Storm Harvey was centered at 29.0 N / 97.2 W or 25 miles NW of Victoria, Texas. It was moving SE at 2 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Harvey is drifting south toward the central coast. It will stall again then slowly move north before dissipating late this week. Harvey's strength will depend if it actually drifts back over the Gulf of Mexico Monday where it could restrengthen some.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Houston, Texas Radar 1:30 PM CDT