Friday Morning Update
Matthew strengthens, approaches the northern coast of Nicaragua
As mentioned on our last update, Matthew's strength will be highly dependent on its track over land or water. Well, it looks like land. That will keep it from strengthening significantly. It looks like it is going to stay south of the offical hurricane center track which takes it over the Bay Islands and into central Belize. Right now, I'm leaning with a track south of this keeping it over land longer. Notice that the hurricane center changed their forecast from Matthew being a hurricane by early next week to now a tropical depression! Again, the track is critical. Do not stop following Matthew if it does follow this southern track and weaken....it may come back. Check the forecast below.
As of 7 am edt / ast Matthew was centered near 14.3° N / 80.0° W or about 225 miles east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicargua. Top sustained winds are estimated at 55 mph (50 mph nhc - 5 am edt advisory). Movement is west at about 16 mph. Pressure estimated at 1000 mb.

Forecasts take this tropical system generally west toward the coast of Honduras / Nicaragua this afternoon, then across the Bay Islands by Saturday afternoon. Matthew then is predicted to recurve north now inland in Belize and Mexico by early next week. It is predicted to be a tropical depression,
but that will be highly dependent on if Matthew is inland or remains offshore. We prefer one of the forecasts that keep it south of this consensus forecast. If that is the case, it may cross into Nicaragua and Honduras south of the Bay Islands.

In the long range: The forecast models have been predicting that a strong tropical cyclone will form in the northwest Caribbean and move across western Cuba toward south Florida late next week. It is unclear if this feature is Matthew moving back into the Caribbean or another low pressure area that forms near Central America. Remember, forecasts can have large errors in the long range. It is worth keeping an eye on the situation since the forecast models have been persistent with this scenario.

Interests on the northern Nicaragua coast should have completed emergency preparations. Interests in Honduras and Belize should now complete any emergency preparations if necessary. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and south Florida should monitor Matthew.
Tropicast: I.R. Floater Satellite
