Igor

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Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:20 pm

Wednesday Midday Update

Igor forms near the Cape Verde islands

A very impressive tropical wave moved off of the coast of Africa recently and has a strong enough circulation to be named a tropical storm now. Wind shear should weaken over the next few days allowing it to become the next hurricane this season.

As of 2 pm edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 13.7° N / 23.7° W or about 80 miles south of Praia, Cape Verde Islands. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph (NHC 40 mph 2 pm advisory). Movement is west 6 mph Pressure estimated at 1005 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest. It is many days away and there is plenty of time to watch it.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 09, 2010 5:09 am

Thursday Morning Update

Igor weak near the Cape Verde islands

In our opinion Igor is not a tropical storm any longer. Deep convection has decreased since yesterday. The hurricane center is still holding onto Igor as a minimal tropical storm probably for continuity purposes.

As of 6 am edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 13.8° N / 24.3° W or about 70 miles south of the southwestern Cape Verde Islands. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph (NHC 40 mph 5 am advisory). Movement is stationary. Pressure estimated at 1005 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest. It is many days away and there is plenty of time to watch it....If Igor survives.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 09, 2010 3:48 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Igor still weak near the Cape Verde islands

The hurricane center has now downgraded Igor to a tropical depression as we suggested as earlier. A nice low level swirl shows up on the satellite imagery but deep convection is still lacking.

As of 5 pm edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 16.0° N / 26.4° W or about 155 miles west southwest of the southwestern Cape Verde Islands. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph (NHC 35 mph 5 pm advisory). Movement is northwest at 13 mph. Pressure estimated at 1004 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest. It is many days away and there is plenty of time to watch it. The hurricane center is now incorporating a north turn before the Islands as models have been suggesting.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 09, 2010 6:48 pm

A large burst of convection is developing over Igor. It looks like its back to a tropical storm.
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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 10, 2010 5:31 am

Friday Morning Update

Igor strengthening slightly

Igor is still being sheared by winds aloft. The low center is on the eastern edge of a very large burst of convection. We believe that the low is strong enough with this deep burst to call for winds a little stronger now. The hurricane center will likely upgrade to tropical storm on the next advisory. We are also going with a position farther west as the latest visible satellite images are now in.

As of 6 am edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 16.0° N / 30.3° W or about 2000 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph (NHC 35 mph 5 am advisory). Movement is west at 13 mph. Pressure estimated at 1004 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving before the Leewards in several days.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:30 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Igor looking more organized

Deep convection continues to look impressive with Igor. The low level circulation is becoming more centered as wind shear weakens slowly. This will allow for additional strengthening.

As of 1 pm edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 16.5° N / 33.0° W or a little less than 2000 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph (NHC 40 mph 11 am advisory). Movement is west at 16 mph. Pressure estimated at 1004 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving before the Leewards in several days.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:35 pm

Friday Night Update

Igor continues to strengthen

Tropical storm Igor has strengthened further today and will likely become a hurricane within 24 hours. The low level circulation is diplaced slightly to the north of the deepest convection.

As of 11 pm edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 17.1° N / 34.9° W or about 1750 east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph (NHC 50 mph 11 pm advisory). Movement is west at 21 mph. Pressure estimated at 1000 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving before the Leewards in several days.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 11, 2010 5:16 am

Saturday Morning Update

Igor continues west

Igor is still on its westerly course in the open tropical Atlantic. It has developed an eye like feature. If it were a true eye winds should be near 80 mph and pressure near 980 mb at least. It is interesting to note NHC's estimate of pressure is at 995 mph. That just doesn't seem to fit with 70 mph winds. We think 65 mph winds are still possible and will watch the development of the eye like feature closely. At the present time cloud tops have warmed, meaning strengthening has leveled off or actually stopped briefly. We still think that there is a good chance of Igor to become a hurricane today.

As of 6 am edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 17.1° N / 37.9° W or about 1550 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph (NHC 70 mph 5 am advisory). Movement is west at 21 mph. Pressure estimated at 995 mb.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving before the Leewards in several days. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 11, 2010 10:07 am

Saturday Midday Update

Igor shows large eye

Igor remains an enigma. Igor now is showing a well formed eye. Typically you will only see this with winds of at least 80 mph. Satellite cloud top temps do not support this type of strength. Also, as stated earlier, one would expect a surface pressure estimate of 980 mb if it close to minimal hurricane strength (74 mph). We're thinking that the pressure may be slightly lower and the winds a little lower too than the hurricane center's estimate. If cloud tops cool, Igor could make the jump to hurricane strength quickly.

As of 11 am edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 17.4° N / 39.5° W or about 1450 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph (NHC 70 mph 11 am advisory). Movement is west at 20 mph. Pressure estimated at 995 mb by the hurricane center.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. Some models have it close to Bermuda roughly around Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 11, 2010 4:45 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Igor close to hurricane strength

The eyelike structure seen earlier is now covered with clouds as cloud tops are starting to cool again. This indicates a strengthening phase has begun. The hurricane center and we are on the same page mostly, believing that Igor is just below hurricane strength.

As of 5 pm edt / ast tropical storm Igor was centered near 17.4° N / 41.2° W or about 1360 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph (NHC 70 mph 5 pm advisory). Movement is west at 20 mph. Pressure estimated at 995 mb by the hurricane center.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. Some models have it close to Bermuda roughly around Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:02 am

Sunday Morning Update

Igor much stronger, continues west

Igor has developed a classic eye and is now on course to strengthen more consistently. The eyewall is cooling and it looks like a rapid strengthening phase has started. Pressure is considerably lower than the official estimate in our opinion.

As of 8 am edt / ast hurricane Igor was centered near 17.8° N / 44.8° W or about 1100 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph (NHC 80 mph 5 am advisory). Movement is west at 18 mph. Pressure estimated at 988 mb by the hurricane center.

Forecasts generally take igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. Models have it close to - generally east of Bermuda roughly around Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 12, 2010 1:42 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Igor now a cat 4

Igor has indeed undergone rapid deepening today. NHC has drastically "upped" their winds from their previous advisory. Outflow looks excellent and continued strengthening is possible today.

As of 2 pm edt / ast hurricane Igor was centered near 17.7° N / 46.1° W or about 1120 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 135 mph (NHC 135 mph 2 pm advisory). Movement is west at 14 mph. Pressure estimated at 950 mb by the hurricane center.

Forecasts generally take Igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. Models have it close to - generally east of Bermuda roughly around Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 12, 2010 8:10 pm

Sunday Night Update

Igor remains strong

Igor's rapid deeping phase has leveled off as cloud tops in the eye wall seem to be hoidng about the same temperature. Eyewall replacement cycles will now dictate Igor's strength.

As of 9 pm edt / ast hurricane Igor was centered near 17.7° N / 47.5° W or about 925 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 140 mph (NHC 140 mph 5 pm advisory). Movement is west at 14 mph. Pressure estimated at 942 mb by the hurricane center.

Forecasts generally take Igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. Models have it close to - generally east of Bermuda roughly around Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:08 am

Monday Morning Update

Igor a strong cat 4 hurricane

Igor's overall CDO ( circular cloud area around the eye) has improved in appearance overnight. We are on the same page as the hurricane center with the estimate of strength. It continues on a due west course. Outflow aloft still is excellent and Igor may reach category 5 today. Note: our estimate from the Leewards will be different from the hurricane center's estimate since we are using different reference points in the Leewards.

As of 7 am edt / ast hurricane Igor was centered near 17.7° N / 49.1° W or about 825 miles east of the Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 150 mph (NHC 150 mph 5 am advisory). Movement is west at 13 mph. Pressure estimated at 935 mb by the hurricane center.

Models have shifted a little east a few days down the road....... Forecasts generally take Igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. Models have Igor mostly turning east of Bermuda late Friday into Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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Re: Igor

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:59 am

Monday Midday Update

Igor almost a cat 5 hurricane

The eye structure of Igor looks a little more impressive so we are bumping winds up slightly. Igor is close to top strength, but may make category 5 in the next 24 hours with only a little more strengthening. The satellite imagery below shows the different aspects of observing a hurricane from space. Note: our estimate of distance from the Leewards is different from the hurricane center's estimate due to using a differernt reference point.

As of 12 pm edt / ast hurricane Igor was centered near 17.6° N / 49.9° W or about 765 miles east of the northeastern Leewards. Top sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph (NHC 150 mph 11 am advisory). Movement is west at 13 mph. Pressure estimated at 933 mb by the hurricane center.

Forecasts generally take Igor west, then west northwest eventually recurving about 200-300 miles before the Leewards around Wednesday / Thursday. The more reliable models have Igor turning about 200 miles east of Bermuda late Friday into Saturday. It is too early to know what effects Bermuda may receive.

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