Thursday Late Afternoon Update
Ike bearing down on the upper Texas coast
Ike's latest Info
Ike is centered at about 26.0 N / 89.4 W or about miles east southeast of Galveston, TX. Top sustained winds are at 100 mph as of the 4 pm cdt advisory. Ike is moving wnw at 10 mph. Pressure is 950 mb.
Ike's Structure
Ike still not has changed much structurally. It is still fighting dry air to the west of the circulation. Outflow aloft is excellent in all areas except for the western side. Ike has a very low pressure that is not being represented well in the observed surface winds. Ike's pressure is representative of a solid cat 3 hurricane. The winds are near a minimal cat 2. Even so, Ike is a very large hurricane. The outflow extends from the Southeast U.S. to Central America. This size of a hurricane has increased water levels throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
Ike's Effects:
High Winds Hurricane force winds extend out to 115 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds out to 275 miles from the center.
Storm Tides Storm tides of 20-25' can be expected where Ike makes landfall and to the northeast of there. Additionally, large waves will be added to the tides.
Rainfall/Flooding The coastal areas from Florida to Louisiana will see outer bands producing locally heavy rain of 1-2". A heavy rain threat will develop Saturday into Sunday from central Texas into Oklahoma. Totals of 5-10" are likely in the pathway of Ike.
Tornadoes Not a serious threat at this point. This will become an issue Friday night into Saturday on the upper Texas coast and possibly Louisiana
Seas Buoys now are measuring seas 21-26' in the northeastern Gulf, down from 28' earlier. In the northcentral Gulf of Mexico, seas are running 26', down from 28' earlier. A buoy in the central Gulf recently reported a wave height to 30'. Seas up to 40' are possible near the center of the hurricane.
The Forecast
The forecast has shifted northward toward Galveston as the landfall location. Remember that the effects will be far removed from the center, especially on the northern side of the circulation.
Summary
Ike is a huge hurricane that is causing large wave and flooding on parts of the northcentral Gulf coast. The storm tide and breaking waves will be very high near the landfall point and northeast. Wind will not cause catastrophic damage at this point. <b>If</b> Ike's winds actually strengthen to a true cat 3/4, winds will become a huge factor in causing damage too, and will increase the storm tide and flooding damage as well.

Stay updated with the latest forecast. Next update:
Thursday late evening.

It's time to finish hurricane preparations on the Texas and Louisiana coast and inland areas. Winds will start picking up by Friday. Here are some ideas:
http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm
