Gustav transforming, has not strengthened yet
The previously small size of Gustav's CDO (clouds around the core circulation) was disturbed by Cuba more than NHC's or our estimations. Gustav made landfall yesterday on the Isle of Youth, as well as, over western Cuba. This pass over Cuba disrupted the circulation so much that the pressure went up 20 mb. The pressure before landfall was at least 941 mb and now all the way up to 960 mb. This was bad for Cuba, but good for the U.S.. Without the disruption of the circulation, the rapid deepening phase would have likely continued into cat 5 strength. At it's strongest yesterday, Gustav was up to 150 mph. Gustav is now at 120 mph. It is now more likely that Gustav will not be able to reach cat 5 strength before landfall.
It appears though that Gustav is in the transformation from a small CDO into a large one. This will allow for much more of a tidal surge to develop over a larger area. NHC is talking about the "loop current" warm water scenario strengthening it again. We simply think that after it goes through this transformation stage it will start to strengthen some. The hurricane is lop sided (sp?) at this point. The western eyewall is very thick and strong. The eastern side is considerably weaker. We are still expecting Gustav to organize, which will strengthen it to possibly a cat 4 again. NHC takes it up to 145 before landfall, then weakens it some just before landfall to a strong cat 3 at landfall because of possible wind shear effects. At this point this seems reasonable to us too.
The forecast has not changed. Landfall on the southeast/south central Louisiana coast by noon Monday. Because Gustav has grown in size, effects may come in many hours before landfall. The weather will especially go down hill late tonight into Monday morning.
We will be watching the recon closely to see if the pressure starts dropping soon. We'll know by later this afternoon if Gustav is going to make a run at strengthening again.

Here are some preparation suggestions: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm
