Thursday Midday Update
Hanna forms, track becomes more of an unknown
NHC upgraded tropical depression 8 to tropical storm Hanna at 11 am edt. The circulation center is on the northwest side the the cloud mass. This is an indication that is is fighting westerly shear from the upper low west of it north of the Islands. This is the same upper low than hampered Gustv with northerly winds a couple of days ago. This wind shear is very problematic.....right now the shear is winning and stripping the convection from the center.
Last night's forecast models took Hanna essentially northwest, then northward far away from the eastern U.S.. The only threat was to Bermuda. If the wind shear rips the deep convection away, Hanna will move more to the northwest, closer to the U.S. In fact the forecast models diverge markedly now. Some still take it north past Bermuda. Others curve it southwestward in the few days toward Cuba. NHC thas split the middle and has pointed it toward the Bahamas and Florida

At this point, not knowing what effect the wind shear may have several days down the road, may be the most reasonable solution. We will be watching the satellite imagery closely!
By the way, if Hanna were to head into the direction of Florida, it would be reminiscent of David and Frederick in 1979. Frederick went into the Gulf and David on the east coast of Florida. This is just a very general comparison, Hanna is approaching from a different direction and has not threatened Florida at this point.
