Deep convection has exploded with the disturbance that we have been watching for the past few days. It is centered near 16.3 N 105.8 W or about 210 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo. It is moving west-northwest and should pass well south of Cabo. Increasing swell will be the main, if not the only threat to Mexico. NHC has it as 35 mph, but it probably is tropical storm Iselle at 40 or 45 mph by our estimate.
TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic
