Thursday Morning Update
Time to make the call...
Satellite imagery shows that the tropical disturbance is now a tropical depression. There can be little doubt. NHC chose not to upgrade at the last advisory 15 minutes ago. They usually like to wait for a recon ( this afternoon ) or visible satellite imagery. I suspect they will upgrade at 11 am edt or may even put out a special advisory. The "disturbance" is getting too close to the Leewards not to have taken action. Unfortunately the Quickscat satellite once again has a "missing data strip" over the tropical disturbance.

That tends to happen when things are getting interesting.
The disturbance that we'll call a depression is centered near 18.0 N / 59.8 W or about 135 miles east of Barbuda. It is moving nearly west at about 12 mph. (maybe just barely north of due west) This will carry rain squalls into Antigua, Barbuda , Anguilla today and toward the BVI's, USVI's and Puerto Rico by tonight.
A ship report near the ciculation had a pressure of 1010 mb. The low is probably near 1008 at this point. NHC may have to go straight to tropical storm if this trend continues.
The forecast models suggest that this tropical cyclone will move near or just north of the Islands and recurve through the Bahamas just east of Florida.....It looks like a tough forecast coming up. Interests from the northern Caribbean Islands / Turks - Caicos / Bahamas and southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this tropical cyclone.
TropicalWeather.net's Tropicast:
