Tropical disturbance east of Lesser Antillies - sept 19-20

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season
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Tropical disturbance east of Lesser Antillies - sept 19-20

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:23 am

Saturday Morning Update

Tropical depression forming

It looks like our newest tropical depression has formed in the central Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. We have been following this strong wave for days now. Yesterday there was a weak low level circulation with showers and storms well east of the center. This morning a burst of convection has formed near the circulation center. The exact center has been estimated using the first visible satellite images and microwave. There is a very good chance that this will become the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season in the next 12-24 hours if development continues.

At 7 am edt / ast the tropical disturbance was centered at 14.0° N / 42.5° W or about or roughly 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Top sustained winds are estimated at 30 mph. The tropical disturbance is moving west northwest at about 10 mph.

Forecast models are moving this system generally northwest into the open Atlantic the next several days.


Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite (5:45 am edt/ast)
Image
Rich Johnson
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Re: New tropical depression forming east of Antillies

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:31 pm

Saturday Late Afternoon Update

Tropical disturbance weakens

Just as it looked like the tropical disturbance was about to take off, westerly wind shear increased again. It has essentially destroyed the cluster near the low center. It also has become apparent today, like cases in the Atlantic earlier this season that there are multiple lows. Convection is likely to build again, but before development can take off the surface low needs to consolidate.
Forecast models are moving this system generally northwest into the open Atlantic the next several days.


Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite (3:45 pm edt/ast)
Image
Rich Johnson
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Re: Tropical disturbance east of Lesser Antillies

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 20, 2009 7:13 am

The tropical disturbance still looks disorganized this Sunday morning. Chances are diminishing that this system will develop. It looks like it missed its window of opportunity.
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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