Bret

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Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tuesday Morning Update

Bret forms
Bret was classified yesterday evening well east of the Lesser Antilles. IR satellite imagery show a circular central dense overcast in a low shear environment. This environment is favorable for development for the next few days. Bret is currently not affecting any land areas.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 44.7W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Tropicast: IR satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret will continue west toward the Caribbean and strengthen. It will likely begin to weaken again as it reaches the Windwards or shortly after entering the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tuesday Evening Update

Bret a bit stronger
Satellite imagery shows a burst of deep convection near the center of circulation and to the east. It appears to be fighting some westerly shear and dry air to the west this afternoon. There has been slight strengthening today.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 48.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret will continue west toward the Caribbean and strengthen. It will likely begin to weaken again as it reaches the Windwards or shortly after entering the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Wednesday Morning Update

Bret a bit stronger
Satellite imagery shows decent outflow aloft, but deep convection is marginal.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret will continue west toward the Caribbean and possibly strengthen a small amount over the next 24 hours. It will likely begin to weaken again as it reaches the Windwards or shortly after entering the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Thursday Morning Update

Bret approaching the Lesser Antilles
Satellite imagery shows a burst of deep convection near the center of circulation, with the strongest winds near and east of the center. Reconnaissance aircraft detected a burst of stronger winds overnight and may have been associated with a short term burst. NHC increased winds due to this information. Another Hurricane Hunter will arrive soon to see if this was actual strengthening or a short term wind burst.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

Tropicast: IR satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret will move across the southern Leewards and northern Windwards later this evening and overnight tonight. Tropical storm force winds, heavy rainfall and high surf can be expected. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Thursday Evening Update

Bret near Barbados
Bret is currently passing Barbados and will move through the northern Windwards and southern Leewards this evening and overnight. Deep convection is limited and shear is causing the west side of the circulation to be nearly void of it. Heavy showers and tropical storm force wind gusts can be expected this evening into the night near and adjacent to the circulation center path. Radar is showing a weak center near Barbados with the heavy showers well east.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 59.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite mid afternoon
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret is moving into the Lesser Antilles and will continue to weaken as shear strengthens.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Friday Morning Update

Bret in eastern Caribbean
Bret is fighting increasing shear as it pulls away from the Lesser Antilles. The eastern side of the circulation has minimal deep convection and this will likely spread the next few days.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret is moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean and will continue to weaken as shear strengthens.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Saturday Midday Update

Bret weakening
Bret continues to fight windshear and the low level center is exposed. Some deep convection remains to the east.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 71.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret is expected to degenerate into a tropical wave by tonight and this will be the last update.
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert
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