Vance

[Caribbean Traveler]

Thursday Morning Update

Vance forms unofficially

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery confirms that tropical storm Vance has formed. Officially it is still a tropical depression, but we expect it to be upgraded on the next advisory at 5 am PDT. As of this time Vance is not posing a threat to the coast. That may change by early next week.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Tropical depression 21E was centered at 11.0 N / 100.2 W or about 410 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving west at about 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph (35 mph official NHC estimate). Pressure was estimated at 1007 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
21E (Vance). will move offshore parallel to the coast then turn northeast toward Cabo Corrientes or just north of there by early next week. This system may weaken before reaching the coast.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Caribbean Traveler]

Friday Morning Update

Vance changes little

The Weather Situation
Vance is not much more organized than yesterday morning. It remains well offshore at this time with only a few thundershowers reaching the SW coast of Mexico.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Tropical storm Vance was centered at 10.5 N / 101.0 W or about 450 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving WSW at about 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Vance will move generally west then turn northeast toward Cabo Corrientes or just north of there by early next week. This system will weaken some before reaching the coast.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Caribbean Traveler]

Saturday Morning Update

Vance changes little

The Weather Situation
Vance is still a minimal tropical storm. Despite this, satellite imagery shows better structure organization this morning and strengthening appears to be ready to go. Vance is far enough offshore to not to affect the Mexican coast.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Tropical storm Vance was centered at 9.4 N / 102.7 W or about 550 miles SSW of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving west at about 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Vance will move generally west then turn northeast toward Cabo Corrientes or just north of there by early next week. This system will strengthen, then weaken significantly before reaching the coast.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Caribbean Traveler]

Sunday Morning Update

Vance strengthens rapidly

The Weather Situation
Vance is has strengthened rapidly an should become a hurricane later today. The structure is well organized and an eye should be visible soon. It remains well offshore so that only a few showers or storms associated with Vance are near the coast.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PST / 5 AM EST Tropical storm Vance was centered at 10.9 N / 106.5 W or about 580 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving WNW at about 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 995 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Vance is beginning to turn and is predicted to weaken south of Cabo San Lucas and just west of Puerto Vallarta by Wednesday as strong upper air winds disturb the circulation.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Caribbean Traveler]

Monday Midday Update

Vance probably at peak strength

The Weather Situation
Vance continued its methodical strengthening trend over the past 24 hours. It is likely at peak strength as wind shear and dry air increase from the southwest. Satellite imagery shows heavier showers moving toward the southern Baja as well as northwestern Mexico north of Puerto Vallarta. Rain will increase during the next 24 hours with the threat of flash flooding and mudslides with over five inches of rainfall possible.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7 AM PST / 10 AM EST Hurricane Vance was centered at 15.3 N / 110.6 W or about 490 miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving NNW at about 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 971 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Vance is turning north and is predicted to weaken south of Cabo San Lucas and just west of Puerto Vallarta by Wednesday as strong upper air winds disturb the circulation. Heavy rainfall will remain a threat over the next few days in these areas. High surf can also be expected.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite

[Caribbean Traveler]

Tuesday Morning Update

Vance weakening

The Weather Situation
Heavy rainfall will increase over northwest Mexico between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan today. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely as over 10 inches of rainfall is possible. High surf can be expected on the southern Baja and west coast of Mexico in these areas. It appears that the worst of the conditions will pass offshore south of Cabo San Lucas.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 4 AM PST / 7 AM EST Hurricane Vance was centered at 18.7 N / 109.8 W or about 75 miles east of Socorro Island, / 380 miles SW of Mazatlan, Mexico. It was moving NNE at about 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph. Pressure was estimated at 973 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Vance is weakening as it approaches northwest Mexico. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern over the next few days. High surf can also be expected.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite


National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 137.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.sh ... e#contents

[Caribbean Traveler]

The circulation of Vance is being ripped apart from wind shear. The low level circulation will move inland tomorrow