Sam

Hurricane / tropical storm forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Updated as necessary all year.
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Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Wednesday Evening Update

TD 18 will be Sam soon

The Weather Situation
Deep convection and banding is developing around the circulation center.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 33.9W
ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will be classified soon and likely develop quickly with little shear in its way.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Thursday Midday Update

Sam I AM is here

The Weather Situation
A false eye will become the true eye as Sam becomes a hurricane within the next 24 hours. All signs point to it quickly organizing.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 38.1W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will strengthen into a possible major hurricane, but it appears that it will stay northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Large swell can be expected several days from now.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Friday Midday Update

Hurricane Sam

The Weather Situation
Sam is steadily organizing today. Expect this to continue for the next few days. Notice the large amount of Saharan dust to the north and east of Sam. Some less dusty air is wrapping around to the west.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 43.7W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will strengthen into a possible major hurricane, but it appears that it will stay northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Large swell can be expected several days from now.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Midday Update

Sam a major

The Weather Situation
Sam has a small eye and appears to be fighting some shear on the northwest side as the eyewall is the weakest there.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 47.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will be closest to the Leewards by around Thursday. Large swell will affect the Lesser Antilles for several days as Sam nears the islands.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Evening Update

Sam a cat 4

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery continues to show a strengthening hurricane Sam

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 48.5W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will be closest to the Leewards by around Wednesday into Thursday. Large swell will affect the Lesser Antilles for several days as Sam nears the islands.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Sunday Midday Update

Sam powerful cat 4

The Weather Situation
Sam looks more impressive on satellite imagery even than yesterday.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 50.2W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will be closest to the Leewards by around Wednesday into Thursday. Large swell will affect the Lesser Antilles for several days as Sam nears the islands.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Morning Update

Sam weaker

The Weather Situation
Sam maxed out yesterday. Dry air to the west this morning and some shear have weakened the structure. The eye is no longer visible. It is possible that Sam is really not longer a cat 4 hurricane, but there is no recent recon data to make an exact call.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.4W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will be closest to the Leewards by around Wednesday into Thursday. Large swell will affect the Lesser Antilles for several days as Sam nears the islands. It will likely stay east of Bermuda, then possibly affect Newfoundland this up coming weekend.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tuesday Midday Update

Sam restrengthens

The Weather Situation
After weakening yesterday Sam restrengthened late in the day into the night bringing it back to a category 4. The eye was clearly visible again, but the strengthening trend has ceased as dry and and some shear to the west has caused it to top out again.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam will be closest to the Leewards tomorrow into Thursday. Large swell will affect the Lesser Antilles for several days as Sam passes the islands. It will likely stay east of Bermuda, then possibly affect Newfoundland Sunday.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Wednesday Midday Update

Little change with Sam

The Weather Situation
Sam continues today as a minimal cat 4 hurricane. It is an impressive sight on satellite imagery. Large swell is the only threat to the Leewards.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 57.0W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam is passing well to the northeast of the Leewards today. As it turns more northward, it will likely stay east of Bermuda, and is now expected to stay SE of Newfoundland.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Thursday Morning Update

Sam moving away from the Leewards

The Weather Situation
Pressure has dropped a bit so Sam is possibly a touch stronger than yesterday. A buoy reported seas to 40 feet when it passed to the west this morning. IMO, the satellite imagery doesn't look as impressive as yesterday with some dry air / shear on the SW flank.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam is pulling away from the Leewards today. As it turns more northward, it will likely stay east of Bermuda. It may be close enough to produce some wind gusts to tropical storm force. After passing Bermuda, it is expected to stay SE of Newfoundland.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Friday Morning Update

Sam staying strong

The Weather Situation
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found 700 mb winds to 147 knots. With a 90% correction factor that places NHC's estimate at 150 mph. Satellite imagery still doesn't look quite as impressive as several days ago. I'm curious to see if the new drone can supply data in the boundary layer to confirm the winds. A 150 mph hurricane should have gusts to 180+ mph. I'm sort of doubting that those winds are making it to the surface.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 61.8W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam has turned north. It will likely stay east of Bermuda. It may be close enough to produce some wind gusts to tropical storm force. After passing Bermuda, it is expected to stay SE of Newfoundland.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Morning Update

Sam moving out, a bit weaker

The Weather Situation
Sam has a large eye and IR imagery shows eyewall warming - indicating weakening. The only threat is high surf that continues for Bermuda and areas of the US east coast / SE Canada. Bermuda experienced winds gusting to minimal tropical storm force last night / this morning.

Official NHC Data
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 60.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Sam is passing well east of Bermuda and is expected to stay SE of Newfoundland.

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Re: Sam

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Sunday October 3rd
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Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday October 4th
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