Nicholas

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Nicholas

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Sunday Afternoon Update

Nicholas named

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows a large, but still fairly disorganized area of convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. Organization and some strengthening is expected before landfall during the next 36-48 hours.

Current Tropical Weather
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCH

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Will move north northwest to the southern Texas coast by Monday, then move inland as a tropical storm early Tuesday on the central Texas coast.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image
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Re: Nicholas

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Morning Update

Nicholas just offshore of the south Texas coast

The Weather Situation
Nicholas is still rather disorganized and does not have a good radar appearance.

Current Tropical Weather
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicholas will move inland on the central Texas coast this evening and slowly move northeast during the next 24-48 hours. Flooding is the major threat from this system.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
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Re: Nicholas

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Evening Update

Nicholas hours away from landfall

The Weather Situation
Nicholas has a large circulation but still does not present a good radar image. Very heavy rainfall can be expected over the upper Texas coast and inland into tomorrow.

Current Tropical Weather
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicholas will move inland later this evening on the central Texas coast and slowly move northeast during the next 24-48 hours. Flooding is the major threat from this system.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
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Re: Nicholas

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tropicast: Radar Monday Evening
Image
Rich Johnson
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Re: Nicholas

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tuesday Midday Update

Nicholas producing heavy rainfall

The Weather Situation
Nicholas was upgraded to hurricane strength briefly for one advisory in the middle of the night. IMO, despite having a 90 mph gust off of Matagorda Island, this was not a hurricane. Sustained winds of 75 mph could have easily produced winds of near 100 mph or more.

Current Tropical Weather
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 95.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHE

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicholas will will continue to weaken as it moves ENE toward Louisiana

Tropicast: IR Satellite 1 AM CDT
Image

Tropicast: Visible Satellite 10 AM CDT
Image

Tropicast: Radar
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert
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