Teddy

Hurricane / tropical storm forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Updated as necessary all year.
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Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:58 pm

Saturday Evening Update

TD 20 classisfied

The Weather Situation
A well defined tropical wave has been upgraded to tropical depression strength. Deep convection has been organizing and a low level spin is now noted.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST TD 20 was centered at 11.4 N / 33.5 W or about 2030 miles east of the northern Leewards. It was moving WNW 9 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD 20 is not expected to affect land during the next five days at it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

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Re: TD 20

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:02 am

Sunday Late Morning Update

TD 20 shows only little change

The Weather Situation
TD 20 is showing some deep convection to the south of the circulation and it is expected to organize into a tropical storm during the next 12 hours.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST TD 20 was centered at 12.3 N / 36.4 W or about 1680 miles east of the northern Leewards. It was moving WNW 10 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD 20 is not expected to affect land during the next five days at it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

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Re: TD 20

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:33 pm

Sunday Evening Update

TD 20 increasing in strength

The Weather Situation
IMO TD 20 should have been upgraded to tropical storm strength at 5 pm EDT. Deep convection has spread from the south to over the center of circulation today.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST TD 20 was centered at 12.7 N / 37.6 W or about 1600 miles east of the northern Leewards. It was moving WNW 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD 20 is not expected to affect land during the next five days as it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a major hurricane.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:41 am

Monday Morning Update

Teddy finally classified last night

The Weather Situation
Convection has expanded and IMO Teddy is likely at 45-50 mph at this time.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 13.4 N / 40.4 W or about 1405 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving WNW 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is not expected to affect land during the next five days as it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a major hurricane.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:55 pm

Monday Evening Update

Teddy organizing

The Weather Situation
Teddy wind speed was increased as deep convection is now banding well on the south side of the circulation.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Teddy was centered at 13.0 N / 44.0 W or about 1170 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving west 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is not expected to affect land during the next five days as it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a major hurricane.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:25 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Teddy stronger

The Weather Situation
Teddy's deep convection has expanded and an eye is forming. I would suspect the NHC will upgrade to hurricane at 11 am edt.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 13.7 N / 46.0 W or about 1030 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving WNW 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1001 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is not expected to affect land during the next five days as it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a major hurricane.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:05 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Teddy developing

The Weather Situation
Teddy had a nice eye feature this morning which broke down some today. It is making a go of it again with the eye reforming.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Teddy was centered at 14.6 N / 47.9 W or about 895 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving WNW 13 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 997 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is not expected to affect land during the next five days as it moves toward the open north Atlantic. It's expected to strengthen into a major hurricane. It is possible that it would affect Bermuda next week.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:25 am

Wednesday Late Morning Update

Teddy finally declared a hurricane

The Weather Situation
NHC made a pun last night... they said "Teddy bears watching". Someone there has a sense of humor. :cat: Today Teddy is stronger with several rainbands.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 16.5 N / 49.7 W or about 775 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving NW 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph. Pressure was estimated at 973 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy will move northeast of the Lesser Antilles with some rough surf on the eastern beaches. It is possible that it would affect Bermuda late Sunday into Monday.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:02 am

Thursday Late Morning Update

Teddy a cat 3

The Weather Situation
Teddy is increasing in strength. The convection around the eyewall has continued to deepen.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 19.3 N / 53.0 W or about 610 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles, 1155 SE of Bermuda. It was moving NW 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 957 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy will move northeast of the Lesser Antilles with some rough surf on the eastern beaches. It is possible that it would affect Bermuda late Sunday into Monday.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Teddy a cat 4

The Weather Situation
Teddy continues to strengthen and look more impressive on satellite imagery.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Teddy was centered at 20.1 N / 54.1 W or about 575 miles NE of the Lesser Antilles, 1070 SE of Bermuda. It was moving NW 13 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 945 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is moving northeast of the Lesser Antilles with some rough surf on the eastern nd northern beaches. It is possible that it would affect Bermuda late Sunday into Monday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Thursday Afternoon
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Tropicast: IR Satellite Thursday Evening
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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:54 am

Friday Morning Update

Teddy a bit weaker

The Weather Situation
Teddy topped out officially at 140 mph. Satellite imagery show that dry air and possibly some shear have weakened the circulation some. IMO the strength is lower than the official estimate now.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 21.6 N / 55.4 W or about 550 miles NE of the Lesser Antilles, 935 SE of Bermuda. It was moving NW 12 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 130 mph. Pressure was estimated at 947 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is moving northeast of the Lesser Antilles with some rough surf on the eastern nd northern beaches. It is possible that it would affect Bermuda late Sunday into Monday. Nova Scotia also appear to be in the path later in the period Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Teddy's rip currents affect East U.S. Coast

The Weather Situation
Teddy is a large system and the eye is now filling in and clouding over.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 PM AST Teddy was centered at 27.0 N / 60.9 W or about 435 miles SSE of Bermuda. It was moving NW 13 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 956 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is predicted to move east of Bermuda Sunday night, but close enough to see effects. Nova Scotia also appears to be in the path later in the period Tuesday as an extratropical "hurricane".

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:39 am

Sunday Morning Update

Teddy's fighting some shear

The Weather Situation
Teddy's winds will continue to produce waves / rip currents on the U.S. east coast. There is some dry air and shear affecting the western side of the system.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 28.0 N / 62.7 W or about 320 miles SSE of Bermuda. It was moving NW 13 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 964 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy is predicted to move east of Bermuda Sunday night, but close enough to see effects. Nova Scotia also appears to be in the path later in the period Tuesday as an extratropical system.

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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:51 am

Monday Evening Update

Teddy passes well east

The Weather Situation
Teddy is now moving away from Bermuda. The radar imagery shows that Bermuda was well away from the eyewall rainfall. Conditions will steadily improve this evening

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Teddy was centered at 33.2 N / 62.0 W or about 175 miles ENE of Bermuda / 790 south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. It was moving NNE 23 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 960 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy will become extratropical as it makes it way toward Nova Scotia and slowly weakens. It will briefly strengthen as it picks up energy from the jet stream.

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Tropicast: Bermuda radar
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Re: Teddy

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:04 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Teddy nearing Nova Scotia

The Weather Situation
Teddy already looks like an extratropical cyclone, in this case an occlusion. It will bring strong winds, heavy rainfall and high surf to SE Canada.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Teddy was centered at 39.6 N / 63.7 W or about 345 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. It was moving NNW 16 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 950 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Teddy will be on the Nova Scotia coast by tomorrow morning as an extratropical system.

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Rich Johnson
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