Arthur

Hurricane / tropical storm forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Updated as necessary all year.
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Arthur

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat May 16, 2020 3:59 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Tropical Depression One classified

The Weather Situation
We have been watching a disturbance for the last few days over the Florida Straits. It organized today and will become a storm soon. The main threat to the Mid Atlantic coast will be heavy rainfall and high surf.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Depression One was centered at 24.8 N / 78.6 W or 125 miles east of Melbourne, FL. It was moving NNE at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1008 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical depression one is expected to move NNE and be just offshore of the North Carolina coast late Sunday into Monday,

Tropicast: Friday Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Saturday Visible Satellite
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Arthur

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun May 17, 2020 9:45 am

Sunday Late Morning Update

Arthur fighting wind shear

The Weather Situation
Arthur has a well defined low level center but is currently fighting wind shear from an approaching trough from the west. Deep convection is noted well east of the center.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Arthur was centered at 30.5 N / 77.4 W or 345 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC. It was moving NNE at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Arthur will continue NNE and dissipate or become an extra tropical low by late Monday or Tuesday east of the Mid Atlantic coast. If the center of the low remains over the Gulf Stream, Tuesday would be more likely. It will continue to fight increasing wind shear as a deep upper low from the west approaches.


Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Re: Arthur

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun May 17, 2020 5:49 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Arthur no stronger

The Weather Situation
Arthur has not changed much today. The low center is still very discernible but looks weak. Deep convection is mostly far from the center which is actually not surprising for a minimal tropical storm. Some heavy showers are approaching the North Carolina coast. It still appears that rainfall in the range of 2-3" will be the main effects with some rough surf.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Arthur was centered at 31.5 N / 77.2 W or 275 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC. It was moving NNE at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Arthur will continue NNE and dissipate or become an extra tropical low by late Monday or Tuesday east of the Mid Atlantic coast. If the center of the low remains over the Gulf Stream, Tuesday would be more likely. It will continue to fight increasing wind shear as a deep upper low from the west approaches.


Tropicast: Radar
Image

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

NHC Location / Hazards / Outlook
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 031.shtml?

NHC Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
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Re: Arthur

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon May 18, 2020 8:38 am

Monday Morning Update

Arthur south of Hatteras

The Weather Situation
Arthur is bringing some locally heavy rain showers to eastern NC. Rough surf can be expected with effects dying down by later today.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Arthur was centered at 34.5 N / 75.9 W or 50 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC. It was moving NNE at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1001 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Arthur will pass over Cape Hatteras today and weaken east of the Mid Atlantic over the next 24-36 hours.


Tropicast: Radar
Image

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
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Re: Arthur

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon May 18, 2020 4:09 pm

Monday Evening Update

Arthur moving away

The Weather Situation
Arthur is pulling away from the North Carolina coast. It has produced minimal effects other than some locally heavy rainfall and rough surf. Some rainfall totals exceeded four inches. Satellite imagery clearly shows the exposed center.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Arthur was centered at 34.5 N / 75.9 W or 50 miles NE of Cape Hatteras, NC. It was moving NE at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 993 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Arthur will meander well east of the Mid Atlantic coast and lose tropical characteristics over the next 24 to 36 hours.


Tropicast: Rainfall Totals
Image

Tropicast: Wind Gusts
Image

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

NHC Location / Hazards / Outlook
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 039.shtml?

NHC Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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Re: Arthur

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue May 19, 2020 5:41 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Arthur extratropical

The Weather Situation
Arthur was declared extratropical late this morning.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx


Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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