Michael

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
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Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:04 am

Sunday Morning Update

TD 14 will be tropical storm Michael soon

The Weather Situation
TD 14 is organizing and very heavy rainfall is falling mostly offshore between the Yucatan peninsula and Honduras.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT TD 14 was centered at 18.9 N / 86.8 W or 240 miles SSW of the western end of Cuba. It was moving north at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models strengthen Michael (TD 14) into a minimal hurricane at landfall in 2-3 days on the NW Florida coast.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:42 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Michael organizing

The Weather Situation
Michael is slowly organizing southwest of western Cuba. Deep convection is mostly noted on the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Very heavy rainfall will be seen over western Cuba and near the track of the landfall in the Southeastern U.S.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Michael was centered at 19.2 N / 85.5 W or 190 miles SSW of the western end of Cuba. It was moving NNE at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 999 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models strengthen Michael into a minimal hurricane at landfall which is expected later Wednesday or early Thursday. Models have slowed the forward speed today. The most likely location of landfall at this time is somewhere over the Panhandle of Florida.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:46 am

Monday Morning Update

Michael almost a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Michael has deepened much more rapidly late night. It will become a hurricane by later today. Very heavy rainfall is falling over western Cuba and near also near the track of the landfall in the Southeastern U.S.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Michael was centered at 20.9 N / 85.1 W or 70 miles south of the western end of Cuba. It was moving north at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 982 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are now strengthening Michael more than previously. It is now predicted as a category 2 hurricane at landfall on the Florida panhandle late Wednesday.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:22 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Michael gaining strength

The Weather Situation
Preparations should be completed today on the Florida panhandle as Michael approaches. Deep convection is expanding and conditions favor Michael strengthening before landfall tomorrow.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Michael was centered at 24.5 N / 86.1 W or 395 miles south of Panama City, Florida. It was moving NNW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph. Pressure was estimated at 968 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to take Michael to the Florida Panhandle Wednesday as a cat 3 hurricane.

Tropicast: Monday PM Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Tuesday AM IR Satellite
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:34 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Michael a major hurricane

The Weather Situation
Deep convection continues to expand near the eyewall of Michael. Some additional strengthening is possible before it makes landfall tomorrow. Wind damage, storm surge, isolated tornadoes in rain bands, flooding rainfall are all concerns.

Finish preparations today today before winds increase. Remember friends, family and pets as you seek a safe location.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Michael was centered at 26.0 N / 86.4 W or 295 miles south of Panama City, Florida. It was moving north at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 957 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to take Michael to the Florida Panhandle Wednesday as a cat 3 hurricane.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Visible close up Satellite
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:48 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Michael at cat 4 strength

The Weather Situation
Michael has continued to strengthen overnight. It is now an extremely dangerous hurricane. Satellite shows the strongest winds with the thickest eye wall on the southern side of the circulation. That will likely change before landfall over the next several hours.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 7:00 AM CDT Michael was centered at 29.0 N / 86.3 W or 90 miles SW of Panama City, Florida. It was moving north at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 145 mph. Pressure was estimated at 933 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Michael is expected to make landfall today on the Florida panhandle. It will recurve northeast and move across southern Georgia as a hurricane and weaken to a tropical storm as it moves over the eastern Carolinas before heading back into the Atlantic off of the Mid Atlantic coast.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
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Tropicast: Radar 6:40 AM CDT
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:01 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Michael has made landfall

The Weather Situation
Michael has been upgraded to 155 mph. So far no winds have approached that speed despite the very low pressure.

From NHC:
A University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site nearTyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 1:00 PM CDT Michael was centered at 29.0 N / 86.3 W or 5 miles NW of Mexico Beach, Florida. It was moving NNE at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 155 mph. Pressure was estimated at 919 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Michael has made on the Florida panhandle. It will move into southern Georgia as a hurricane and weaken to a tropical storm as it moves over the eastern Carolinas before heading back into the Atlantic off of the Mid Atlantic coast.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Radar 12:55 PM CDT
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:08 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Michael over south Georgia

The Weather Situation
Michael is now over SW Georgia as the eye fills with cloud cover on the satellite imagery. Mexico Beach, FL was devastated by storm surge.

From NHC: A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. A sustained wind of 59 mph (96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St. George Island, Florida.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 4:00 PM CDT Michael was centered at 30.9 N / 85.1 W or 30 miles west of Bainbridge, GA. It was moving NNE at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph. Pressure was estimated at 932 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Michael will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves over the eastern Carolinas before heading back into the Atlantic off of the Mid Atlantic coast.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Radar 6:00 PM EDT
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:36 am

Thursday Morning Update

Michael over South Carolina

The Weather Situation
Michael is picking up forward speed as it moves through the Carolinas. The main concern now will be heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes.

From NHC:
Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston, South Carolina.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Michael was centered at 34.1 N / 81.8 W or 40 miles WNW of Columbia, SC. It was moving NE at 21 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 986 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Michael will move into the Atlantic off of the Mid Atlantic coast later tonight as it becomes extratropical.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Rainfall Estimate North Georgia
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Re: Michael

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:17 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Michael over NE North Carolina

The Weather Situation
Very heavy rainfall is occurring from Virginia into Maryland. The low center will mover over the Tidewater of Virginia and out to see over the next several hours.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM EDT Michael was centered at 36.5 N / 77.8 W or 5 miles NW of Roanoke Rapids, NC. It was moving NE at 24 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 989 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Michael will move into the Atlantic off of the Mid Atlantic coast later tonight as it becomes extratropical.

Tropicast: Radar 9 PM Radar
Image

Tropicast: Radar 6 PM Radar
Image

Tropicast: Rainfall Estimate North Carolina
Image

NHC Forecast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 349.shtml?

NHC Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.s ... e#contents
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