Leslie

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
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Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Sunday Afternoon Update

Leslie won't be moving much

The Weather Situation
Leslie is a subtropical system, having formed from an upper air low. It is not expected to strengthen much nor move much over the next several days.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Leslie was centered at 33.0 N / 46.5 W or 1145 miles WSW of the Azores. It was moving west at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models show little motion over the next few days for Leslie. It is only a threat for shipping. Leslie is expected to dissipate over the next few days.


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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Afternoon Update

Leslie a broad system

The Weather Situation
Leslie will transform into an extratropical system soon. It will gain some energy during the transition.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Leslie was centered at 33.0 N / 47.2 W or 1185 miles west of the Azores. It was moving east at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models show drifting toward the east as it becomes extratropical then makes a counter clockwise turn.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Leslie now extratropical

The Weather Situation
Leslie has merged with a front and is now an extratropical system. It may break off from the front in a few days once again gain subtropical characteristics.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Thursday Morning Update

Leslie reorganizing

The Weather Situation
Leslie will likely be reclassified as a sub tropical storm later today. It is only a threat to shipping at this time.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Friday Afternoon Update

Leslie is back

The Weather Situation
Surely NHC will rename Leslie at 5 pm. we'll see. update: renamed at 5 pm.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Midday Update

Leslie a broad system

The Weather Situation
Leslie is currently being sheared after looking more impressive on Friday. Windshear is expected to relax allowing strengthening.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Leslie was centered at 34.4 N / 50.8 W or 820 miles ENE of Bermuda. It was moving SW at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models show Leslie slowly mowing SW in the central Atlantic.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Midday Update

Leslie a little stronger

The Weather Situation
Leslie is slowly strengthening and may reach hurricane strength. It posses little threat except to possibly a few ships.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Leslie was centered at 33.2 N / 54.3 W or 615 miles east of Bermuda. It was moving WSW at 5 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 990 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models show Leslie slowly meandering in the central Atlantic this week.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tuesday Evening Update

Leslie almost a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Leslie actually looks like a hurricane on satellite imagery.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Leslie was centered at 30.1 N / 56.4 W or 520 miles ESE of Bermuda. It was moving SSW at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 986 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models show Leslie slowly north in the central Atlantic this week.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Wednesday Evening Update

Leslie changes little

The Weather Situation
NHC upgraded to a hurricane during the past 24 hours. Leslie's appearance on satellite imagery is similar to yesterday's.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Leslie was centered at 29.9 N / 56.9 W or 495 miles ESE of Bermuda. It was moving north at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 975 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie slowly north in the central Atlantic this week and turning east during the weekend.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Thursday Morning Update

Leslie looks a bit weaker

The Weather Situation
Even though the official strength estimate by NHC remains the same, IMO Leslie has weakened a touch. I am thinking 65 - 70 mph as the deep convection around the eye is not as impressive. Look for NHC to drop winds some on the 11 am AST advisory.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Leslie was centered at 31.4 N / 57.1 W or 455 miles east of Bermuda. It was moving north at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 976 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie slowly north in the central Atlantic this week and turning east during the weekend.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Friday Evening Update

Leslie in middle of Atlantic

The Weather Situation
NHC downgraded Leslie to a tropical storm as expected. Convection is decreasing near the core.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Leslie was centered at 36.2 N / 58.1 W or 465 miles NE of Bermuda. It was moving NNE at 3 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 987 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie east, then southeast through the weekend as it becomes extratropical.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Afternoon Update

Leslie now eastbound

The Weather Situation
Leslie will slowly transition into an extratropical cyclone over the next 2-3 days.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Leslie was centered at 37.7 N / 55.8 W or 630 miles NE of Bermuda. It was moving east at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 987 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie east, then southeast into next week as it becomes extratropical.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Sunday Morning Update

Leslie in open Atlantic

The Weather Situation
No appreciable changes.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Top sustained winds are still estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 987 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie southeast the next several days as it becomes extratropical.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Morning Update

Leslie will restrengthen

The Weather Situation
Leslie is holding on and in a few days will be in more favorable development conditions. Slightly warmer water and less dry air will give it a boost in strength later during this week.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Top sustained winds are still estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 989 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie southeast into midweek. Strengthening is now forecast before it is picked up by an upper air trough which will take it northeast in the general direction of western Europe.

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Re: Leslie

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Tuesday Morning Update

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Top sustained winds are still estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 983 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models move Leslie SSE then, turn it NNE toward western Europe as it become extratropical again before reaching the coast of Portugal.

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