Saturday Evening Update

Kirk forms west of Africa

The Weather Situation
Kirk has formed unusually far to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Satellite imagery indicated rotation and NHC classified the system at 11 AM AST.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST kirk was centered at 8.6 N / 24.8 W or 430 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving WNW at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models take Kirk generally westward and will be in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles by around five days. Wind shear is a concern and Kirk is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane at this time.


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Sunday Afternoon Update

Kirk moving quickly

The Weather Situation
Kirk has gathered more convection near the center, but overall not much different from yesterday.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Kirk was centered at 9.3 N / 30.2 W or 545 miles SW of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving west at 21 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models take Kirk generally westward and will be in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles by around five days. Wind shear is a concern and Kirk is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane at this time.


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Monday Afternoon Update

Kirk declassified

The Weather Situation
IMO Kirk is still a minimal tropical storm. NHC has declassified the system, but says it has a chance to reorganize.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models take the remnants of Kirk generally westward and will be in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles by around later this week. Wind shear remains a concern.


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Kirk holds on

The Weather Situation
Kirk still looks like a minimal tropical storm on satellite imagery, but NHC says that it does not have a closed circulation. It does now appear to have one as well as new banding.


Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Wednesday Morning Update

Kirk is back

The Weather Situation
Kirk was upgraded to tropical storm strength as expected. Parts of the Lesser Antilles will see tropical storm conditions on Thursday.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Kirk was centered at 12.0 N / 53.5 W or 415 miles east of Barbados. It was moving west at 18 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models take Kirk into the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and weaken it into the eastern Caribbean Friday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Thursday Morning Update

Kirk being sheared

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery clearly show the low center emerging from the deep convection. Wind shear is tearing this system apart and is weakening Kirk. There is still the possibliliy of some tropical storm wind gusts and heavy showers after the low center passes..

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Kirk was centered at 13.6 N / 58.7 W or 60 miles ENE of Barbados. It was moving WNW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models take Kirk into the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and weaken it into the eastern Caribbean Friday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Friday Evening Update

Kirk weak in Caribbean

The Weather Situation
Kirk has a weak low level circulation with some convection still associated with it.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Kirk was centered at 14.7 N / 64.7 W or 270 miles SSE of San Juan Puerto Rico. It was moving WNW at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Kirk will dissipate soon.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite