Florence

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
User avatar
Caribbean Traveler
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3670
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:28 pm
Antispam: no
Location: Under a palm tree
Contact:

Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:08 am

As of 9 AM EDT, the first visible satellite imagery show that the eye is now obscured. Another sign of Florence struggling. IR imagery still shows some dry air - now on the west side of the circulation - disrupting the circulation. It's important to keep an eye on it to see if the eye wall closes off again. If it does more strengthening may occur.



Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

User avatar
Caribbean Traveler
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3670
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:28 pm
Antispam: no
Location: Under a palm tree
Contact:

Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:53 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Rain / wind arrive on the NC coast

The Weather Situation
Rain bands have arrived over eastern North Carolina. Winds are near 40 mph gusting 60-75 mph from near Cape Lookout to south of Atlantic Beach. Wind is blowing offshore, so for now this is keeping the water from rising. Once Florence moves south and the winds shift to the south water levels will rise on the coast. This is still a better scenario than if winds were from the south with an approaching hurricane. Keep in mind the rivers of eastern North Carolina will flood as surge pushes water well inland.

Dry air has affected Florence today and has stopped it from strengthening. With that being said there is still an opportunity for more strengthening if it remains offshore. It is expected to be near the coast of North Carolina and upper South Carolina coast for the next 24 hours.


:!: Severe flooding / wind damage / storm surge could prolong problems for an extended period of time. Expect widespread power outages.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Florence was centered at 33.7 N / 76.2 W or 100 miles ESE of Wilmington, North Carolina. It was moving WNW at 5 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph. Pressure was estimated at 955 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Florence will stall / slowly turn southwest near the NC coast south of Cape Lookout tonight then drift south toward the upper South Carolina coast Saturday.

The heaviest rainfall will be over the eastern 1/2 of North Carolina & NE South Carolina Friday. Rainfall remains in place over nearly the whole state of North Carolina Saturday and the northern half of South Carolina also. Sunday the heaviest rainfall will shift into western North Carolina and SW Virginia. The rest of North Carolina and northern half of South Carolina will still see some rain, occasionally heavy.


Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, extreme flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar 4:45 PM edt
Image

Morehead NWS Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

User avatar
Caribbean Traveler
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3670
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:28 pm
Antispam: no
Location: Under a palm tree
Contact:

Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:49 am

Friday Morning Update

Florence makes landfall

The Weather Situation
The eye of Florence made landfall near Wrightsville beach in the Wilmington, NC area a short while ago. Generally, wind gusts in the range of 90-105 mph have been seen on the coast since last night. Florence is a cat 1 hurricane and the effects would have been much, much worse if it came in as a cat 3/4 as once officially predicted.

Damage reports are sketchy at this time since strong winds and heavy rainfall are still occurring as well as widespread power outages. Still power outages are not nearly as widespread as could have occurred with a much stronger hurricane. As of this morning over 400 k people are without power in North Carolina.

Tropicast: Power outages from Poweroutage.us
Image

Coastal areas and river locations experienced storm surge, very heavy rainfall and strong winds. Damage details will not be know until authorities can assess the situation once weather conditions relax.

Rainfall with Florence is expected in the 20-40" range for the southern 1/2 of North Carolina and northern South Carolina.

:!: Severe flooding / wind damage / storm surge could prolong problems for an extended period of time. Expect widespread power outages.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Florence was centered at 34.1 N / 77.9 W or 10 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina. It was moving WNW at 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 958 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Florence is expected to drift southwest over the coast of South Carolina during the next 24 hours before turning inland across South Carolina. It appears that the center will go back over water. It that happens weakening will not occur as quickly and some restrengthening may occur.

Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar at landfall @ 8 am EDT
Image

Wilmington NWS Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

NHC Forecast
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

NHC Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... e#contents
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Post Reply

Return to “2018 Atlantic Hurricane Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest