Hermine

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Hermine

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:44 am

Wednesday Morning Update

99 L in the Leewards

The Weather Situation
An air force reconnaissance investigated the tropical disturbance on Monday, but did not find a well defined circulation. Convection has increased overnight increasing heavy downpours that can be expected today across the Leewards. Current observations from the Leewards do not show a well defined center but a new recon will investigate later this morning.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 am edt the tropical disturbance is broadly centered over the Leewards.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
99 L is forecast to track toward the Bahamas over the next few days. Both the Euro and GFS have this system tracking to near south Florida by late Sunday / early Monday. The models split beyond this time period. The models have been fairly consistent taking this tropical system toward the Bahamas but have varied greatly on strength / track afterwards.

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Re: 99 L

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:40 am

Thursday Morning Update

99 L still weak

The Weather Situation
99 L remains disorganized. Despite this heavy rainfall is occurring over southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic this morning.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 am EDT Tropical disturbance 99 L is centered just SW of the Turks and Caicos.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
99 L is forecast to track toward the Bahamas over the next few days. The GFS keeps 99 L weak, barely as a closed low near the Florida Keys before entering the Gulf of Mexico. It then dissipates. The Euro develops 99 L either into a tropical storm or hurricane. It begins development just east of Miami then recurves it northward along the west coast of Florida Monday and Tuesday. It then slowly takes it over south Georgia and eastern Carolinas the next few days before moving it off the the North Carolina coast by Friday next week.

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Re: 99 L

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:35 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

99 L struggling

The Weather Situation
99 L is very disorganized. The visible satellite imagery clearly shows the weak low level circulation just south of the Caicos. Deep convection is displaced well to the south. It is important to not hype this system as it may never develop.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 1:30 pm EDT Tropical disturbance 99 L is centered just south of the Caicos.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The new GFS totally dissipates 99 L. It is possible that the low center may never organize. A new run of the Euro will be available later this afternoon.

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Re: 99 L

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:21 pm

Thursday Evening Update

99 L very weak

The Weather Situation
99 L continues to be very disorganized. The visible satellite imagery shows a low level swirl void of convection.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:15 pm EDT Tropical disturbance 99 L is centered near northern Great Inagua island (extreme southeastern Bahamas).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The new Euro model from this afternoon had a considerably weaker solution than previous runs. At this time, the latest run has a possible tropical storm moving northward up the western coast of Florida early next week. The GFS continues to keep 99 L weak and moves it into the gulf as on open wave.

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Re: 99 L

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:28 am

Friday Afternoon Update

99 L over south central Bahamas

The Weather Situation
99 L continues to be very disorganized. The visible satellite imagery shows a low level swirl near Long Island. Deep convection has rebuilt on the east side of this weak circulation.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 12:15 pm EDT Tropical disturbance 99 L is centered over Long Island - south central Bahamas. It is moving off to the WNW at about 13 mph.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Both the latest Euro and GFS keep 99 L weak. Both models also now hint at a possible weak system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. There is still some chance for this system to become a tropical storm early to mid next week. It will depend if wind shear relaxes enough for convection to rebuild around a low center.

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Re: 99 L

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Aug 28, 2016 8:10 am

99 L continues to be disorganized this morning as it battles wind shear. It is located in the Florida straits. Some development is possible over the next few days in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts models are in agreement in taking this tropical system toward the Big Bend of Florida by Thursday but idffer greatly thereafter.
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Re: 99 L

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:59 am

Sunday Afternoon Update

99 L just south of Key West

The Weather Situation
99 L is just south of Key West moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear continues to limit convection.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 1:00 pm EDT Tropical disturbance 99 L is centered just south of Key West.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Both the GFS and Euro turn tropical depression 8 northward and eventually near the Big Bend of Florida by Thursday. The GFS keeps TD 8 as a minimal tropical system and the Euro develops it to at least tropical storm strength. The models both strengthen the system as it reemerges east of the Georgia / South Carolina coast by late this week.

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Re: TD 09

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:45 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Tropical Depression 9 slowly organizing

The Weather Situation
Tropical depression 9 appears to be getting better organized as it pulls away from western Cuba. Deep convection is slowly expanding from the south side of the circulation. It is likely that it will gain tropical storm strength by later today.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11 AM AST Tropical Depression 9 was centered at 23.6 N / 84.3 W or 170 miles WSW of Key West, Florida. It was moving west at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to become a tropical storm as it turns to the north into the eastern Gulf. It is forecast to move inland by around Thursday into the Florida coast in the northeastern Gulf.

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Re: Tropical Depression 9

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 30, 2016 11:30 am

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Tropical Depression 9 likely to be classified

The Weather Situation
Tropical depression 9 will likely be classified as a tropical storm later today. Deep convection has been increasing on the south side of the circulation. Despite the Hurricane Hunter recon and and the Global Hawk recon not finding tropical storm force winds, the system appears to be strengthening. There will be a "window" of opportunity for TD 9 to strengthen before wind shear picks up again before reaching the coast. Residents in living between Tampa and Panama City, FL should pay close attention to the track and strength of this system.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11 AM AST Tropical Depression 9 was centered at 24.0 N / 87.2 W or 340 miles west of Key West, Florida. It was moving WNW at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to become a tropical storm as it turns to the north into the eastern Gulf. It is forecast to move inland by around Thursday into the Florida coast in the northeastern Gulf. Periods of wind shear will likely keep TD 9 from reaching hurricane strength.

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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:55 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Hermine classified

The Weather Situation
A reconnaissance aircraft has finally found winds over tropical storm strength. Deep convection has also increased with the system giving further reason to classify this as a tropical storm. They system is still being sheared with most of the convection south of the circulation center.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM EDT Tropical Storm Hermine was centered at 24.7 N / 88.0 W or 395 miles SSW Apalachicola, Florida and 415 miles WSW of Tampa, Florida. It was stationary. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1001 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Storm Hermine will approach the Florida Big Bend late Thursday and move up the Southeast Coast Friday. Interests on the west coast of Florida and Southeast US coast should pay close attention to the latest Hurricane Center Watch and Warning locations.

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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:30 am

Thursday Afternoon Update

Hermine strengthening before landfall

The Weather Situation
Hermine is asymmetrical in shape with the heaviest rain and strongest winds on the east side of the circulation. Storm surge will be a concern especially in Apalachee Bay where sea level rise may be 5-8 feet above mean tides. Heavy rainfall and winds gusting to over hurricane force are possible. An eye is also currently developing. Please see the official hurricane center advisory for information on evacuations and warnings.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11 AM EDT Tropical Storm Hermine was centered at 27.4 N / 86.0 W or 170 miles SSW Apalachicola, Florida and 220 miles west of Tampa, Florida. It was was moving NNE at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Tropical Storm Hermine will approach the Florida Big Bend late Thursday and move up the Southeast Coast Friday. Interests on the west coast of Florida and Southeast US coast should pay close attention to the latest Hurricane Center Watch and Warning locations.

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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:44 pm

Thursday Late Afternoon Update

Hermine now a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Reconnaissance aircraft recently found strong enough winds to now classify Hermine as a hurricane. The heaviest rainfall is moving up Apalachee Bay into the Big Bend of Florida. The highest surge will be to the east of landfall which should be near St. George Island or a little east of there late this evening. Please see the official hurricane center advisory for information on evacuations and warnings.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 3 PM EDT Hurricane Hermine was centered at 28.1 N / 85.4 W. It was was moving NNE at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 988 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Hurricane Hermine will approach the Florida Big Bend late Thursday evening and move up the Southeast Coast Friday. Interests on the west coast of Florida and Southeast US coast should pay close attention to the latest Hurricane Center Watch and Warning locations.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Radar
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:57 am

Friday Morning Update

Hermine weakening over southeast Georgia

The Weather Situation
Hermine made landfall around 1:30 AM just east of St. Marks, Florida in Apalachee Bay. Top sustained winds were 80 mph with a pressure of 982 mb. Widespread power outages have been reported over the Big Bend to Tallahassee. Numerous trees are down on power lines as well as blocking highways.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11 AM EDT Tropical Storm Hermine was centered at 31.9N / 82.0 W or 55 miles WSW of Savannah, Georgia. It was was moving NE at 18 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 989 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Hermine will move up the coast of the Carolina's tonight and be located near Virginia Beach Saturday. It will become extra or sub tropical as it stalls east of the New Jersey coast through Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall will remain offshore, but wave action will likely cause some erosion / flooding. Storm surge may also cause flooding near the coast. Winds may gust over 40 mph near the coast.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Monday evening
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Tropicast: IR Satellite just before landfall
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Tropicast: Radar just before landfall
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Tropicast: Visible Satellite Tuesday Morning
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Tropicast: Radar Tuesday Morning
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Re: Hermine

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:57 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Hermine strengthening in its post tropical stage

The Weather Situation
Hermine lost its tropical characteristics last evening in eastern North Carolina. Heavy rainfall of 5-10 inches was seen in the same region with winds gusting from 50 to 60 mph from Atlantic Beach, North Carolina to Cape Henry, Virginia. The strongest gust seen was 80 mph at Alligator, NC. The heaviest rainfall has now moved off of the coast. The main concern will be to see if Hermine regains some tropical characteristics over the warm Gulf Stream. Regardless of its classification, Hermine will pose a threat of high surf, beach erosion and tidal surge on the Mid Atlantic coast. See NHC's official surge products.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM EDT Post Tropical Storm Hermine was centered at 36.0N / 74.2 W or 90 miles east of Duck, North Carolina. It was was moving east at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 995 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Hermine will stall east of the Maryland / Delaware coast for a few days before moving east and weakening by around Thursday. The heaviest rainfall will remain close to the coast and wave action will likely cause some erosion / flooding. Storm surge may also cause flooding near the coast. Winds may gust over 50 mph near the Mid Atlantic coast.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Tuesday Morning
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Tropicast: Radar just before landfall
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