Earl

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Earl

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:29 pm

Monday Evening Update

Strong tropical wave in Caribbean

The Weather Situation
A very strong tropical wave is currently southeast of Jamaica. It is showing some banding and a rotation. A hurricane hunter plane is currently on the way to investigate and we will be able to know if the circulation is mid or low level. It is very likely that this system will become the next tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours.


Current Tropical Weather
Southeast of Jamaica - centered about 225 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
This system will likely become a tropical cyclone and move toward the WNW. Belize and the Yucatan peninsula will likely see impacts.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Re: Earl

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:33 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Earl classified

The Weather Situation
An air force recon found a circulation southwest of Jamaica late this morning and the hurricane center initiated advisories at 12 noon edt. The system is still being sheared from the west as the tropical storm quickly moves eastward. Winds aloft are conducive for strengthening, especially if the low level circulation slows.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM EDT Tropical Storm Earl was centered at 16.3 N /80.8 W or 210 miles south of Grand Cayman. It was moving West at 22 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will continue west, then WNW and make landfall near Belize Wednesday evening. Effects will be seen over northern Honduras / Bay Islands, Belize and the Yucatan. The Caymans will manly see some squalls as Earl passes to the south.

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Re: Earl

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 03, 2016 8:01 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Earl a minimal hurricane

The Weather Situation
Earl is just east of the Belize northern coast. IR satellite imagery suggest that Earl is most likely a little under hurricane strength. Convection is not that impressive and no eye is noted. Officially Earl has been classified as a minimal hurricane.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 PM EDT Hurricane Earl was centered at 17.3 N /86.9 W or 85 miles ESE of Belize City. It was moving West at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph / 75 mph (NHC official estimate). Pressure was estimated at 987 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl will move inland within the next several hours. It will lose strength over land, but may restrengthen into a tropical storm if it makes its way over the southern Bay of Campeche.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
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Re: Earl

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:47 am

Thursday Morning Update

Earl weakens

The Weather Situation
Earl made landfall last night at 2 am edt near Belize City. It strengthened just before landfall and the hurricane center's estimate of 80 mph looked reasonable. Wind damage and heavy rainfall will continue over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala into Belize.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM EDT Hurricane Earl was centered at 17.3 N /89.5 W or 90 miles west of Belize City. It was moving West at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 990 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl now appears to be moving south of the official track and will likely stay south of the Bay of Campeche. In fact Earl may weaken and dissipate over land or possibly move into the Pacific and regenerate.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
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Re: Earl

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:26 am

[quote="Caribbean Traveler"]Thursday Morning Update

Earl weakens

The Weather Situation
Earl made landfall last night at 2 am edt near Belize City. It strengthened just before landfall and the hurricane center's estimate of 80 mph looked reasonable. Wind damage and heavy rainfall will continue over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala into Belize.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM EDT Hurricane Earl was centered at 17.3 N /89.5 W or 90 miles west of Belize City. It was moving West at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 990 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Earl now appears to be moving south of the official track and will likely stay south of the Bay of Campeche. In fact Earl may weaken and dissipate over land or possibly move into the Pacific and regenerate.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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