Alex

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Alex

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:38 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Alex is a January storm!

The Weather Situation
For several days convection in the eastern Atlantic associated with an upper air low has gradually gained some tropical characteristics. A core of convection near the center of circulation is enough for the Hurricane Center to name Alex

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5PM AST Subtropical Storm Alex was centered at 27.1 N /30.8 W or 785 miles SSW of the Azores. It was moving northeast at about 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 990 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alex is forecast to move generally northward into the north Atlantic Ocean. The Azores may see some effects of wind and rain as Alex passes by late Thursday / early Friday.

Tropicast: Eastern Atlantic Visible Satellite
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Re: Alex

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Jan 14, 2016 10:52 am

Thursday Morning Update

Alex is a hurricane?!

The Weather Situation
The hurricane center has upgraded Alex to hurricane strength. As stated by the Hurricane Center - It is very rare for a hurricane to form over 20°celsius (68° F) water, but due to very cold air aloft enough instability was created to allow this. Also, beign classified as a hurricane NHC said: Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since 1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of 1955.

It usually takes near 80° F water for a hurricane to form. That is one reason I do not agree that this is a hurricane. It is also extremely small in size. The central core is only a little over 100 miles wide. It does have a "classic hurricane" look, but I just don't buy that there are winds to 85 mph - and gusts to 100 mph in this system. I wish a recon could actually investigate to provide data so prove this one way or the other.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11AM AST Hurricane Alex was centered at 31.5 N /28.4 W or 490 miles south of the Azores. It was moving NNE at about 20 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 85 mph (NHC). Pressure was estimated at 981 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The Azores will see gusty winds and rain as Alex passes by late Thursday night / early Friday.

Tropicast: Eastern Atlantic Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Eastern Atlantic IR Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Eastern Atlantic Enhanced IR Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
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Re: Alex

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:24 am

Friday Morning Update

Alex over the Azores

The Weather Situation
Alex is now moving through the Azores. So far top sustained winds have been measured at 41 mph at Santa Maria was well as Ponta Delgado. Both of these islands are in the Azores, which are approximately 900 miles west of Portugal in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Winds are continuing to drop the past few hours. Alex had a classic hurricane look yesterday, but was tiny in comparison to the average size of a hurricane. I continue to believe that Alex was never a hurricane. It would have been nice to see a report from a recon, although Alex was well out of range.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM AST Hurricane Alex was centered at 38.0 N /26.9 W or 50 miles SSE of the central Azores. It was moving north at about 24 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph (NHC). Pressure was estimated at 986 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alex is losing its tropical characteristics as its wind field expands and moves into the north Atlantic Ocean.

Tropicast: Eastern Atlantic Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Eastern Atlantic IR Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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