Bertha

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Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:15 pm

[b][color=darkred]Thursday Night Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha classified[/b][/size]



NHC upgraded the disturbance directly to tropical storm strength. The recon found winds to support 45 mph. Deep convection developed on the east side of the circulation over the past few hours allowing for the upgrade.



As of 11 pm EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 12.3 N / 55.5 W or about 275 miles ESE of Barbados. It was moving WNW at about 20 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 45. Pressure was estimated at 1008 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move WNW through the northeastern Caribbean late Friday and through Saturday. It will then turn more northerly near the eastern Bahamas Sunday and Monday. Significant strengthening is not forecast with Bertha.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic IR floater satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_1.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:26 am

[b][color=darkred]Friday Morning Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha approaching the Lesser Antilles today[/b][/size]



Overnight deep convection has expanded over the eastern semi circle of the circulation. It is fighting westerly wind shear and dry air. Showers and storms will increase today over the Lesser Antilles. A recon has just arrived and has found the pressure a little higher and winds in line with the 45 mph estimate.



As of 8 am EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 13.6 N / 57.9 W or about 110 miles ENE of Barbados. It was moving WNW at about 20 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 45. Pressure was estimated at 1010 mb (update from recon).



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move WNW through the northeastern Caribbean late today and through Saturday. It will then turn more northerly near the eastern Bahamas Sunday and Monday. Significant strengthening is not forecast with Bertha.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible floater satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_2.gif[/img]



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Barbados Radar[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_3.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:58 pm

[b][color=darkred]Friday Afternoon Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha near Martinique[/b][/size]



Visible satellite imagery shows a large arc cloud west of the circulation. This is an indication of poor development conditions. The strongest winds are in a cluster of storms east of the circulation. Dry air and wind shear will try to disrupt the circulation during the next few days.



As of 2 pm EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 14.3 N / 60.9 W or about 45 miles east of Martinique. It was moving WNW at about 22 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 50. Pressure was estimated at 1007 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move WNW through the northeastern Caribbean late today and through Saturday. It will then turn more northerly near the eastern Bahamas Sunday and Monday. Significant strengthening is not forecast with Bertha.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible floater satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_4.gif[/img]



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Lesser Antilles Radar[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_5.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:14 pm

[b][color=darkred]Friday Evening Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha between Martinique and Dominica[/b][/size]



Deep convection is reorganizing around the center of circulation indicating some strengthening is starting. Recent observations from Dominica and Martinique only found winds to 25 mph. Some higher gusts were likely, especially over higher terrain.



As of 5 pm EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 14.9 N / 61.2 W or about 20 miles NW of Fort de France, Martinique / 405 miles SE of San Juan, P.R. It was moving WNW at about 24 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 50. Pressure was estimated at 1007 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move WNW through the northeastern Caribbean tonight through Saturday. It will be near Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon. It will then turn more northerly near the Turks and Caicos early Sunday afternoon and eastern Bahamas Sunday night and early Monday. Latest trends now show that some strengthening is possible as it moves away from the Bahamas - well east of Florida. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible floater satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_6.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:37 pm

[b][color=darkred]Friday Night Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha in the NE Caribbean[/b][/size]



Bertha is rapidly moving WNW and is now in the NE Caribbean. It will cross Puerto Rico on Saturday. Heavy showers / storms and breezy / windy conditions will be felt over the extreme eastern part of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Saturday. Thunderstorms continue to expand tonight allowing for the system to become a bit more organized. At the present time this will be noticed mostly as a larger area of heavier rainfall.



As of 11 pm EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 15.7 N / 63.0 W or about 275 miles SE of San Juan, P.R. It was moving WNW at about 22 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move WNW through the northeastern Caribbean tonight through Saturday. It will be near Puerto Rico Saturday afternoon. It will then turn more northerly near the Turks and Caicos early Sunday afternoon and east of the eastern Bahamas Sunday night and early Monday. Latest trends now show that some strengthening is possible as it moves away from the Bahamas - well east of Florida. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic IR floater satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_8.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:55 am

[b][color=darkred]Saturday Morning Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha SW of St. Croix[/b][/size]



Despite have a large area of rain associated with it, Bertha remains poorly organized. It is producing tropical storm force winds, but does not have a very well defined low level circulation. Winds over the far eastern Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands may reach minimal tropical storm force of 40 mph. I personally don't believe that winds are sustained at 50 mph. If that were the case gusts should be measured near 60 mph which are not being found. The main threat will be from heavy rainfall where several inches may occur.



As of 8 AM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 16.7 N / 65.5 W or about 120 miles SSE of San Juan, P.R. It was moving WNW at about 22 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 40 mph (50 mph NHC advisory). Pressure was estimated at 1008 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move NW to western Puerto Rico / eastern Dominican Republic today. It will then turn more northerly near the Turks and Caicos by noon Sunday and just east of the eastern Bahamas Sunday night and early Monday. Latest trends now show that some strengthening is possible as it moves away from the Bahamas - well east of Florida. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_9.gif[/img]



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Puerto Rico Radar 9 AM EDT[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_10.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:53 pm

[b][color=darkred]Saturday Evening Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha approaching the eastern Dominican Republic[/b][/size]



Bertha has a very poor low level circulation and in reality more resembles a strong tropical wave and not a tropical storm. Recon has not found a closed surface low since yesterday afternoon. Heavy rainfall is moving away from the Virgin Islands to the north. It still covers western Puerto Rico. This area of rain is heading toward the Turks and Caicos and eastern Dominican Republic.



As of 5 PM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 18.4 N / 68.5 W or about 90 east of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic / 275 SE of Grand Turk. It was moving WNW at about 22 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 40 mph (45 mph NHC advisory). Pressure was estimated at 1010 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move to near the Turks and Caicos by Sunday morning and just east of the eastern Bahamas Sunday night and early Monday. Latest trends now show that some strengthening is possible as it moves well away from the Bahamas. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_11.gif[/img]



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Puerto Rico Radar 4:30 PM EDT[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_12.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:56 am

[b][color=darkred]Sunday Morning Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha near Grand Turk[/b][/size]



Bertha remains very disorganized. The recon still can not find a closed low level circulation and this is system is more of a strong tropical wave instead of tropical storm. Heavy rainfall and breezy to windy conditions will move into the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas during the next several hours.



As of 8 AM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 21.5 N / 71.8 W or about 45 west of Grand Turk. It was moving NW at about 21 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 40 mph (45 mph NHC advisory). Pressure was estimated at 1012 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move to just east of the eastern Bahamas later today and early Monday. Some strengthening is possible as it moves well away from the Bahamas. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_13.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:10 pm

[b][color=darkred]Sunday Night Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha east of the Bahamas[/b][/size]



Heavy rain squalls are now moving to the north, away from the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. An unrelated area of low pressure is causing thundershowers over the NW Bahamas and eastern Florida. The recon finally found a closed low level circulation and pressure is dropping. This is the first signal of strengthening as it pulls away from the Bahamas. Bertha will be moving away from the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow.



As of 8 PM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 23.3 N / 73.2 W or about 95 ESE of San Salvador, Bahamas. It was moving NW at about 18 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 mb (8 PM recon).



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move north northeast of the Bahamas Monday. Some strengthening is possible as it moves well away from the Bahamas. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic IR Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_14.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:24 am

[b][color=darkred]Monday Morning Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha strengthening away from the Bahamas[/b][/size]



Bertha has strengthened overnight. NHC shows winds just under hurricane strength at 70 mph. I personally believe that the sustained surface winds are lower, closer to 60 mph. A recon earlier recorded winds near 70 mph, but it is hard to imagine winds that are sustained that long with a 999 MB pressure. Typically winds approach hurricane force (74 mph) when pressure is near 980 - 985 MB - considerably lower. Squalls have moved away from the Bahamas. Wind shear from the NW is affecting Bertha and may keep it close to its current strength.



As of 5 AM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 26.1 N / 73.6 W or about 220 east of the Abacos, Bahamas. It was moving north at about 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph (70 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 999 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move north northeast of the Bahamas Monday. Some continued strengthening is possible as it moves well away from the Bahamas. If wind shear weakens enough, Bertha may make minimal hurricane strength as it recurves between eastern NC and Bermuda. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic IR Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_15.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:26 pm

[b][color=darkred]Monday Evening Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha moving out to sea[/b][/size]



Bertha was upgraded to an 80 mph hurricane at 11 AM it is now estimated at 75 MPH. It has a very ragged appearance on satellite. Recon pressure is also very high for a hurricane. I am still estimating winds below the official NHC estimate. It appears that the stronger winds earlier may has been associated with a downburst instead of sustained low level winds. Wind shear will increase over the next few days and Bertha will lose tropical characteristics.



As of 5 PM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 29.4 N / 73.6 W or about 560 WSW of Bermuda. It was moving north at about 18 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph (75 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 998 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move between Bermuda and the coast of North Carolina tomorrow before becoming extratropical. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_16.gif[/img]
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Re: Bertha

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:03 am

[b][color=darkred]Tuesday Morning Update[/color][/b]



[size=150][b]Bertha weakening well west of Bermuda[/b][/size]



NHC has officially dropped winds below hurricane force. I'm not sure this really ever was a hurricane. Pressure never dropped very low and the structure was very disorganized. If it was a hurricane, only a very limited area experienced hurricane force winds. Seas will be 10-15 feet in a zone close to the area of low pressure. This will be the last update on Bertha.



As of 5 AM EDT / AST Bertha was centered at 33.4 N / 72.9 W or about 475 west of Bermuda. It was moving NNE at about 22 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 55 mph (65 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 1005 mb.



[b]Forecast:[/b]

Bertha will move NNE to just east of Newfoundland Canada and across the north Atlantic the next few days as it becomes extratropical. Bertha will stay east of the eastern U.S. coast.



[color=darkblue][b]Tropicast: Atlantic Visible Floater Satellite[/b][/color]

[img]http://www.tropicalweather.net/atl_2014/bertha_17.gif[/img]
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