Next bad storm?

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Next bad storm?

Postby Florida Beach Gal » Wed Sep 22, 2010 11:14 am

I am getting a bit nervous about the forecasts from the Caribbean. It looks like a hurricane may form and head north. Has anyone else seen this too?

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Martin
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Re: Next bad storm?

Postby Martin » Wed Sep 22, 2010 9:52 pm

Carolina Hurricane wrote:I am getting a bit nervous about the forecasts from the Caribbean. It looks like a hurricane may form and head north. Has anyone else seen this too?

GFS in particular has been persistent on getting that system to form into some kind of tropical system, cross Florida and become some big nor easter for the East Coast. This is 200 hours+ out so don't even worry about it now. I think recon is going out around 15z for this storm. Lets see what the models say after they get that data

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Re: Next bad storm?

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 24, 2010 7:22 am

It is looking more likely that this scenario will unfold. I'm still hoping that the models are wrong.
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Martin
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Re: Next bad storm?

Postby Martin » Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:55 pm

AFD MLB Florida...

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
LIFT IT NORTH ACROSS CUBA MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO EASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS REGENERATION OF TC MATTHEW OR A SEPARATE SYSTEM (NICOLE?).
SYSTEMS CAN BE SLOWER COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN THAN MODELS
EXPECT SO HPC BRINGS THIS CYCLONE ONLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... AT THAT TIME...GFS HAS IT JUST OFF
THE SW FL COAST AND THE ECMWF IS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST...BOTH
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

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Re: Next bad storm?

Postby Kit Kat » Sun Sep 26, 2010 1:33 pm

It's coming. You can see that something is going on in the northwest caribbean now.

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Re: Next bad storm?

Postby Martin » Sun Sep 26, 2010 8:44 pm

Drought buster!
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