Paloma

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Paloma

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:26 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update
Tropical low forming east of Honduras / Nicaragua

An area of unsettled weather has persisted in the western Caribbean for the past few days. It has gradually become better organized and a tropical depression seems to be forming. Deep convection is east of Nicaragua and Honduras northeastward to near Jamaica.

The forecasts suggest that a low will move north, then northeast over the next few days over Cuba then weaker over the Bahamas.

***415 pm est update...... Tropical depression 17 recently was named by NHC. They bring it up to hurricane strength before passing by Grand Cayman and hitting southeastern Cuba in a few days.

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Last edited by Caribbean Traveler on Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:47 am

Thursday Early AM Update
Tropical depression 17 almost a tropical storm

The Hurricane Hunters found winds just shy of tropical storm strength on their last visit a few hours ago. The satellite imagery continues to show organization and we think that tropical depression 17 is now on the verge of being named tropical storm Paloma. There is a very good chance that the National Hurricane Center will name it this morning.

At 2:30 am est the center of t.d. 17 is near 15.2 N / 82.4 W or about 60 miles east of the Nicaragua / Honduras border. It appears to be drifting northwest, but is really difficult to tell with I.R. satellite imagery. The visible imagery this morning and the Hurricane Hunters will give us a much better idea.

The forecast models are more spread out, some taking it west over land into Central America. A more reasonable track takes it around the periphery of a high toward the Cayman Islands into Cuba, then into the Bahamas in several days. The winds aloft are favorable for strengthening and this system has a good chance to become a hurricane.

Interests on the northeast coast of Honduras, the Cayman Islands and southern Cuba should watch this system carefully. In addition, those traveling or living in the central or southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation too, with the potential of some impacts several days away.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:16 am

Thursday AM Update
Tropical storm Paloma organizing

As expected, the National Hurricane Center upgraded tropical depression 17 to tropical storm Paloma. The first visible satellite images of the day as well as recon information show that Paloma is stregthening steadily.

As of 9 am est Paloma is centered near 15.5 N / 82.3 north or about 70 miles ene of the Honduras / Nicaragua border and about 270 miles ssw of Grand Cayman. It is moving nnw slowly at about 7 mph. Top sustained winds are officially 40 mph, and we agree with that assessment.

Deep convection is building slowly near the center of circulation and well as northward near the Cayman Islands.

With warm ocean water temperature and favorable winds aloft we will be watching for the potential of a rapid deepening phase, where the storm quickly strengthens. If that happens, it will likely occur in the next 12- 36 hours.

The forecasts have changed little since last night, turning Paolma ahead of a trough recurving it in the general direction of the Cayman Islands then toward Cuba in the next few days.



Interests on the northeast coast of Honduras, the Cayman Islands and southern /central Cuba should watch this system carefully. In addition, those traveling or living in the central or southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation too, with the potential of some lesser impacts several days away.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:01 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update
Tropical storm Paloma strengthens to 60 mph

Paloma is centered near 16 N / 82 W at 2 pm est. It is now moving north at 7 mph. Officially NHC has tropical storm Paloma at 60 mph. Considering the latest recon, we think it is a little weaker, but should be near 60 mph in a few hours. The last recon measured a pressure of 997 mb.

A burst of deep convection is just south of Grand Cayman with another showing up on Cuban Radar moving north of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac toward southern Cuba.

Overall, there has been little change in the forecast thinking with Paloma becoming a hurricane and recurving in the general direction of the Cayman Islands then toward Cuba. The center of Paloma should be near Grand Cayman by early Saturday, with effects increasing Friday night.

Interests in the Cayman Islands and southern /central Cuba should watch this system carefully. Paloma is moving away from Honduras and the effects are decreasing today.

In addition, those traveling or living in the central or southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation too, with the potential of some lesser impacts several days away. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:31 pm

Thursday Night Update
Paloma now a minimal hurricane

At 11:30 pm est hurricane Paloma was centered near 17.3 N / 81.8 W or about 140 miles ssw of Grand Cayman. Officially top sustained winds are at 75 mph. We think that is probably close now as Paloma moved past a buoy with a wind gust to 68 knots. NHC claimed that the buoy measured a gust to 74 knots, but we could not verify that. Pressure is down to 987 mb, which is a touch high for a minimal hurricane. We usually go with 980-985 as the threshold.

Enhanced satellite imagery shows that an eye is forming and making an attempt to become visible. Right now it is cloud covered. We expect this quick pace of strengthening to continue as the eyewall is now becoming better organized. There is potential for hurricane Paloma to strengthen into a cat 2 or 3 hurricane before nearing the Cayman Islands.

The forecast models still suggest a northward motion for another day before turing northeastward toward the Cayman Islands then Cuba. There is a big question on the amount of wind shear and how much it will weaken and affect the course of Paloma after about 24-36 hours.


Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts several days away. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:15 am

Friday Morning Update
Paloma continues to strengthen

AT 8 am est hurricane Paloma was centered near 18.0 / N 81.7 W or about 95 miles southwest of Grand Cayman. It appears to have wobbled a little over the past few hours, but is still on generally a northerly course. The last recon measured a pressure of 981 mb. Top sustained winds are at 80 mph, which we think still may be a touch high, but should be close soon, as the hurricane continues to strengthen.

Satellite imagery continues to show an organizing hurricane. The strongest part of the eyewall has rotated southwest of the circualtion. This may rotate back around toward Grand Cayman later today or just fill in. Either way, weather will be going downhill today at Grand Cayman and all preparations should be rushed to completion soon.

The latest forecasts are still clustered near the Cayman Islands then toward the southcentral coast of Cuba. The motion has been a little faster, so the center of hurricane Paloma should be near Grand Cayman overnight tonight. Wind shear has blocked some of the high level outflow on the southeast quadrant for now, but is causing little problem for strengthening at this point. Wind shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 hours which is likely to weaken Paloma some and may shift its course. This is what we will be watching closely.

Rainfall amounts of 5-10 will occur near the track of the eyewall of hurricane Paloma.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Paloma getting close to Grand Cayman!

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Nov 07, 2008 2:12 pm

Friday Afternoon Update
Paloma closing in on Grand Cayman

At 2 pm est, hurricane Paloma was centered near 18.5 N / 81.4 W or about 55 miles south of Grand Cayman. Officially top sustained winds are 90 mph. Latest pressure is 974 mb. Movement nne 6 mph.

We still think that the National Hurricane Center is a little strong on the wind speed. If top sustained winds are 90 mph, gusts should be in the 105-110 mph range. There is no evidence of winds this strong at this time. Hurricane Paloma is on a steady strengthening phase still and we estimate that top sustained winds are near 80 mph with gusts near 95 mph. The most recent observations from Grand Cayman indicate winds at 38 mph from the ene gusting to 53 mph. The worst of the conditions are about to arrive at Grand Cayman in the next several hours and last through tonight.

The forecast shows that the eye of Paloma will move near or maybe 25-50 miles east of Grand Cayman tonight. Right now Paloma is headed directly toward Grand Cayman, but a turn more northeast is expected to begin within about 12 hours. Either way, Grand Cayman looks to be in the eyewall this evening.

More on the forecast when the latest models come in this afteroon. That this time, no changes.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:14 pm

Friday Afternoon Mini Update
Paloma continues to strengthen

The latest satellite imagery as well as a Hurricane Hunter measurement indicated a 80 kt (92 mph) surface wind estimate as well as a pressure of 970 mb. We believe that maximum surface winds are now 90-95 sustained. NHC will probably have winds up to 95-100 on the 4 pm est advisory.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Nov 07, 2008 4:38 pm

Friday Late Afternoon Update
Paloma's eyewall moving over Grand Cayman

As expected, the National Hurricane Center raised the top sustained winds up. We didn't expect the 105 mph that they estimated. That means if true, the surface gusts should be near 10-20% of that value or about 120-125 mph. Motion is to the nne at 7 mph.

It appears that the eye will pass over the eastern part of Grand Cayman or just east of Grand Cayman by around 8-9 pm tonight. Remember that the winds will be just as strong as the eye passes by.

A recent recon had a pressure of 967 mb and a 80 knot surface wind as mentioned earlier. With this being said and the continued organization, we think top sustained winds are near 95-100 mph with gusts to about 115 mph. It appears that the stronger part of the eyewall is on the southwest quadrant and won't reach Grand Cayman until tonight. The northern eyewall is moving in now. Cloud tops are rapidly cooling, so it is likely that hurricane Paloma will reach cat 3 strength (111-130 mph)while in the Cayman Islands during the next 6-18 hours.

Residents of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac may see the worst of the hurricane as it will max out near there.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:14 pm

Friday Night Update
Paloma moving east of Grand Cayman

At 9 pm est, hurricane Paloma is centered near 19.0 N / 80.8 W or about 40 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. The antipicated turn has just started as of about 1-2 hours ago. It seems as though prayers have been answered as the worst part of the eyewall will now miss Grand Cayman. This happens to be the southwest quadrant of the hurricane. If Paloma had remained on course for another 3-4 hours, the full force of the hurricane would have crossed the island.

Hurricane Paloma is now setting its sights on Cayman Brac and Little Cayman and both of those islands will be in the northern eyewall later tonight.

Top sustained winds are officially 115 mph making it a major hurricane. The latest pressure was 964 mb. The recon had measured a 116 mph surface wind a short while ago. We think the winds are in the 110-115 mph category at this time. I.R. satellite indicates a solid eyewall with the western side the strongest.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Nov 08, 2008 1:33 am

Saturday Early AM Update
Paloma moving toward Little Cayman / Cayman Brac

At 1:30 am est hurricane Paloma was centered near 19.5 N / 80.4 W or about 60 miles ene of Grand Cayman and 25 miles southwest of Little Cayman. Officially top sustained winds are at 120 mph. and the estimated pressure is 958 mb. A new recon is heading to hurricane Paloma, so the pressure and wind were estimated for this intermediate advisory by NHC. This is probably a decent estimate with the strongest part of the eyewall to the south of the eye. It looks like Paloma will move just west of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac tonight in about three hours.

Grand Cayman wil see the weather improve rapidly later this morning with Little Cayman and Cayman Brac later this afternoon.

Cuba will be next in line as hurricane Paloma will make landfall on the south central coast Saturday evening. Wind shear should begin to weaken Paloma sometime during the day Saturday, but still will make landfall in Cuba as a hurricane southwest of Camaguey.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday / Tuesday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Nov 08, 2008 8:44 am

Saturday AM Update
Paloma now a historic November hurricane :!:

Hurricane Paloma has continued to rapidly deepen. The official surface sustained wind of 140 mph on the last advisory. The last pressure measured has now dropped to 939 mb, with a surface wind of 147 mph.


Paloma took a jog more eastward overnight and moved barely south of Little Cayman and over Cayman Brac. It is now just northeast of Cayman Brac, centered near 19.8 N / 79.5 W at 8:30 am est. It now has resumed its northeast motion and has sped up to over 10 mph. With a temporary jog farther east last night, landfall in Cuba will more likely be on the southern side of Camaguey province instead of the southwestern side.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday / Tuesday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone. :!: Crossing Cuba should still disrupt the circulation greatly, but we will watch the strength closely as it move north of the island.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Nov 08, 2008 11:12 am

Saturday Midday Update
Paloma approaching the south coast of Cuba

At 11 am est hurricane Paloma was centered near 20.1 N / 79.0 W or about 60 miles from the coast of the province of Camaguey. Paloma will make landfall late this afternoon in to early evening. Top sustained winds officially are at 140 mph. We were a little surprized that NHC did not raise the winds up a touch on the last advisory. Motion is northeast at 9 mph.

The visible satellite shows an excellent presentation of the eye which appears to continue to shrink - a sign of strengthening. On the other side of the equation, southwesterly wind shear appears to just be starting. Little Cayman and Cayman Brac will see dramaticlly better weather by later this afternoon as Paloma continues to move away.

Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday / Tuesday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone. :!: Crossing Cuba should still disrupt the circulation greatly, but we will watch the strength closely as it moves north of the island.

:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:47 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update
Paloma about to make landfall on south coast of Cuba

As of 3:30 pm est, hurricane Paloma was centered near 20.6 N / 78.5 W or about 15 miles off of the Cuban coast in the province of Camaguey. Top sustained winds are 140 mph officially at the last advisory. We think that the wind is quickly coming down as the pressure from a recon at 2:30 pm est was at 952 mb. The recon had a surface estimate of 116 mph. The satellite also showed that the eye has clouded over and shear is starting. We estimate that top winds are now near 120 mph and in a very small zone near the eye. Motion is northeast at 11 mph.

Landfall should be near 4:30 pm est today. Hurricane Paloma should weaken rapidly as it interacts with land and as shear increases.
Those traveling or living in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should keep abreast of the situation, with the potential of some lesser impacts Sunday / Monday / Tuesday. The effects of crossing Cuba and increasing wind shear should weaken Paloma considerably before reaching the Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are in even a lesser threat zone. :!: Crossing Cuba should still disrupt the circulation greatly, but we will watch the strength closely as it moves north of the island.


:arrow: Stay safe! Here are some reminders on preparing for a tropical cyclone: http://www.tropicalweather.net/plan.htm

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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Sat Nov 08, 2008 8:22 pm

Saturday Evening Update
Paloma over Camaguey province Cuba

At 8 pm est the center of hurricane Paloma was centered over Camaguey province, Cuba. It is still moving northeast at around 10-11 mph.

We were baffled by NHC's strength estimates earlier. They upgraded Paloma to 145 late this afternoon based on a strong flight level wind of 168 mph. We had said on our mid afternoon update that it looked like 145-150 mph when they left it at 140. Pressure started to rise later this afternoon and we estimated 120 mph as it was making landfall - that's when NHC upped the winds as pressure rose considerably. :???: Confused?, so were we. NHC estimated the wind at 120 mph on the 7 pm est advisory. We think that it is losing strength rapidly and that is still too strong. We're estimating 100 mph maximum surface sustained winds. There is only a small core of very deep convection with the eyewall left.

The official forecast calls for hurricane Paloma to move off of the north Cuba coast by 1 pm est Sunday. It looks like the center may move off a few hours early. Hurricane Paloma's circulation is getting greatly disrupted over Cuba and with wind shear increasing, this should add to weakening. The main effects experienced in the central Bahamas will be heavy rain and tropical storm force winds.

:arrow: With Paloma over Cuba, the hurricane hunter can not send a vortex fix. Also, data is sparse over parts of Cuba and reports will be incomplete.

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