Monday Evening Update
Christobal is continuing northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast today. It will pose very little threat to the northeastern U.S.
NHC continues to hold the top sustained winds at 65 mph, and we are still baffled by this. A recent recon estimated surface winds of 32 knots with 45 knots in a squall band. Also, microwave satellite estimates are only near 40-45 mph. Our estimate is that Christobal is probably near 45 mph.
The latest satellite imagery is showing heavy convection rebuilding over the center of circulation. If this continues, and Christobal strengthens, it may be close to 65 mph by later this evening.
An interesting note on the forecast track. Models are now hinting that Christobal may recurve south in about three or four days from now well south of Newfoundland. This would be in response to a high center drifting west. If this does occur, Christobal may be around for awhile.