Erin

Tropicial cyclone archives of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season
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Erin

Postby Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:53 am

The disturbed area of showers and storms in the Yucatan channel remain disorgainized. The unsettled weather is associated with an upper air low over the central Gulf. Winds aloft may become favorable for some development over the next couple of days.

Quickscat and visible satellite imagery suggest no surface circulation at this time. It is possible that a a surface reflection of the upper air low will develop. Models form a low as this area of disturbed weather moves toward Texas. If the system develops or not, heavy rains will likely move toward the Texas coast Wednesday and Thursday.
Last edited by Caribbean Traveler on Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:31 am

Tuesday AM

Upper air low is pulling away. No quickscat imagery to check for surface circulation development. Showers and storms are now building under ridge. Models take this system into Texas Wednesday and Thursday with heavy rain potential.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:45 am

Tuesday

Showers and storms continue to persist. Quickscat from earlier today still shows no well defined low. The hurricane hunters will investigate this afternoon and we will know for sure if a low is at the surface.

Models still develop a low and take it to the mid-Texas coast by tomorrow afternoon. It is still possible for a t.s. to develop before this time. It doesn't really matter though, because the main problem will be associated with heavy rainfall once again returing to Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:31 pm

Tuesday evening

Recon from earlier today suggested no well defined surface low. Recent visible satellite imagery suggest that a low may be trying to develop with most of the convection away from the circulation center.

Forecast models have been very persistent in developing this low and taking it into Texas late Wednesday. Rain will be heavy at times with rain moving into central Texas Thursday and to west Texas by Friday.

It's possible that this will be a ts before landfall but the main impact will still be heavy rain.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:40 am

Wednesday AM

Depression status as of 11pm Tuesday. The thundershowers have persisted into the overnight hours. It looks as though the depression will take on storm status sometime Wednesday. The landfall time should be late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. There could be some gusty winds but the main threat remains heavy rainfall.


T.S. watch in effect Freeport south into northern Mexico.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:58 am

The depression is looking better organized. Quickscat, unlike yesterday, shows a well defined low, although recon did not find a well defined circulation. Certainly, if you look at the visible satellite loop, it appears to be getting better organized. The depression will most likely be upgraded by later today sometime.

Expect this to move in later tonight/tomorrow morning as a tropical storm bringing heavy rain to Texas for a few days. I'm glad this one's moving onshore because it looks like it wants to start to go to town. Banding features are just starting to take shape.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:20 pm

depression was upgraded to Erin. It should continue to develop before moving inland. As stated earlier, it's good that this one is moving inland because it could have been real trouble.
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Postby Caribbean Traveler » Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:31 am

Thursday AM

Last update on Erin.

Broad circulation center will cross the coast around day break. Main threat remains heavy rain with 3-5" likely near and north where the center comes in. Isolated heavier amounts possible. This will probably be near Corpus Christi. Rain will persist and move inland the next few days. There is also an isolated tornado threat on the central Texas coast into Thursday.
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