Andres

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update

1E classified

The Weather Situation
Forecast models have been predicting a tropical cyclone to form in the eastern Pacific for several days now. Satellite imagery suggests that we actually now have a tropical storm. Look for NHC to upgrade on their next advisory.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Tropical depression 1E was centered at 11.0 N / 110.4 W or about 685 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving wnw at about 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph (35 mph official advisory). Pressure was estimated at 1005 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
1E is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and stay well to the west of Mexico. Outer rain bands may bring a few thundershowers to the west central coast of Mexico for the next few days. Larger than normal swell on the coast is also likely.

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Andres strengthens

The Weather Situation
The hurricane center strengthened Andres to a tropical storm as expected today. Their estimate of 60 mph looks reasonable. An eyelike structure has evolved over the past few hours. It is likely that this is simply a pocket of dry air that got entrained into the circulation. Andres will likely become a hurricane by sometime Friday.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 PM EDT Tropical Storm Andres was centered at 11.6 N / 112.5 W or about 800 miles SSW of of the southern tip of Baja Mexico. It was moving wnw at about 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 998 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Andres will strengthen to a hurricane by tomorrow. It will eventually diminish in intensity as it moves toward cooler water over the next several days. Andres is not a threat to Mexico.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Andres nearly a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Deep convection near the center of circulation continued to build overnight. Andres will likely become a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours. NHC's estimate of 70 mph sustained winds looks reasonable.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Andres was centered at 12.0 N / 113.9 W or about 795 miles SSW of of the southern tip of Baja Mexico. It was moving wnw at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Andres is not a threat to Mexico.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Andres well west of Mexico

The Weather Situation
Water vapor imagery occasionally shows an eye feature with Andres. Currently high clouds obscure the eye. Deep convection is strongest on the north side of the circulation and the hurricane with likely strengthen a touch more before moving over cooler water.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Hurricane Andres was centered at 14.0 N / 115.6 W or about 720 miles SSW of of the southern tip of Baja Mexico. It was moving NW at about 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 978 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Andres is not a threat to Mexico.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Morning Update

Andres still a major hurricane

The Weather Situation
Andres is a category 4 hurricane. It is well west of Mexico and is not a threat to land.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Hurricane Andres was centered at 15.5 N / 119.8 W or about 825 miles SW of of the southern tip of Baja Mexico. It was moving west at about 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 145 mph. Pressure was estimated at 938 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Andres is not a threat to Mexico.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite