Blanca

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Morning Update

Blanca developing

The Weather Situation
Blanca has moved very little as it is under weak steering flow. Deep convection is expanding and is symmetrical. Banding is also noticed indicating increased organization. Winds will likely be increased to 60 mph by the next advisory. A few showers are near the coast from the outer rainbands.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Blanca was centered at 13.3 N / 104.6 W or about 395 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was nearly stationary. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1001 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Blanca is expected to rapidly intensify soon and possibly become a major hurricane. It is expected to begin weakening as it moves northward. This motion will take Blanca toward the southern Baja by Saturday. Interests in the area should follow Blanca closely.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Morning Update

Blanca rapidly intensifying

The Weather Situation
Blanca has an excellent small eye appearance on satellite imagery. This suggests a very strong tropical cyclone. NHC estimated 110 mph at 5 am. IMO Blanca is now at 130-140 mph. Look for NHC up upgrade on their next advisory.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Blanca was centered at 12.6 N / 104.7 W or about 445 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was nearly stationary. Top sustained winds are estimated at 140 mph (110 mph NHC - 5am). Pressure was estimated at 964 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Blanca is forecast to move near the southern Baja by late Saturday. Weakening should occur as it approaches, but it still could pose a significant threat. Interests in the area should follow Blanca closely.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update

Blanca significantly weaker

The Weather Situation
Yesterday evening Blanca maxed out in strength with 140 mph / 943 mb pressure from NHC. Since then, satellite imagery shows a larger, but more disorganized hurricane than yesterday. The eye is not discernible and I am estimating a wind strength a little lower than NHC.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM EDT Hurricane Blanca was centered at 11.9 N / 104.9 W or about 830 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It was nearly stationary. Top sustained winds are estimated at 115 mph (125 mph NHC - 5am). Pressure was estimated at 950 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models have slowed the progress of Blanca and it is now forecast to move near the southern Baja by Sunday. This will allow for weakening to occur as it approaches, but it still could pose a threat. Interests in the area should follow Blanca closely.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Blanca strengthens overnight

The Weather Situation
Blanca underwent another strengthening phase after weakening for the past 24-36 hours. It became a major hurricane again. A few outer rain bands may brush Cabo Corrientes, but the worst of the effects will remain offshore. Look for high surf to increase on Cabo and remain high on the west coast.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM EDT Hurricane Blanca was centered at 17.3N / 109.2 W or about 385 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It was moving NW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph . Pressure was estimated at 952mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Blanca is still expected to weaken as it approaches the southern Baja during Sunday. Forecast tracks still take Blanca to the west of Cabo. Interests in the area should follow Blanca closely and all hurricane preparation on Cabo should be completed by the end of Saturday.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update

Blanca being sheared

The Weather Situation
Blanca is being sheared by southeasterly upper air winds. This is keeping the heavy showers and storms well away from Baja on the western side of the circulation. A few rain bands may develop over the southern Baja today. The main threat will be from high surf on the west side of the Baja and locally heavy rain squalls. Flash flooding is possible with squalls. Winds to tropical storm strength will develop today over the southern Baja.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM EDT Hurricane Blanca was centered at 20.2N / 111.0 W or about 200 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It was moving NNW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph . Pressure was estimated at 964mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Blanca is expected to continue weakening and approach Cabo San Lazaro after midnight tonight. It will move back over the Pacific ocean briefly before making a second landfall near Punta Abreojos. It will likely be near tropical storm strength during landfall.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Morning Update

Blanca makes landfall

The Weather Situation
Blanca has made landfall near Cabo Lazaro. A heavy "ball" of rain is over the northern part of the southern Baja this morning. Very heavy rain and flash flooding are a concern Rainfall amounts of 5"+ are possible. The heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will make their way up the central Baja today.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM EDT Tropical Storm Blanca was centered at 24.5N / 111.8 W or about 40 miles ESE of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. It was moving NNW at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph . Pressure was estimated at 998 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Blanca is expected to continue weakening Tropical storm force winds will slowly weaken today. Heavy rainfall will move into the northern Baja tonight. Scattered heavy showers can be expected over southern California and western Arizona on Tuesday bringing rare rainfall for this time of year.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite