Sunday Afternoon Update
18-E forms

We have been following this disturbance for a couple of days now. It looked like it had reached tropical depression status about 24 hours ago. NHC has now officially upgraded it to a depression at 35 mph and is forecast to become a tropical storm. It is so well formed at this point that we think not only is it a storm, but is probably about 50 mph.

(Polo) is centered at 8.8 N / 109.8 W or about 970 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. It is moving wnw at about 16 mph. It is no threat to Mexico. There is potential that it could strengthen to a strong tropical storm before facing wind shear.


TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic


Official NHC Forecast Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/022053.shtml
Official NHC Track / Watches and Warnings
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/204913.shtml?5day?large#contents

Visible Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Monday Early AM Mini Update
Polo a minimal tropical storm

The tropical depression was upgraded a short while ago as expected. The I.R. satellite imagery showed that there was a small burst of deep convection a few hours ago. The clouds tops now have warmed again. The official strength is 40 mph by NHC. We will estimate 45 mph, down from 50 mph earlier.

Polo is no threat to Mexico.

Official NHC Forecast Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/022053.shtml
Official NHC Track / Watches and Warnings
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/204913.shtml?5day?large#contents

Visible Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Monday Late Morning Update
Polo remains a small tropical storm

There really has been little change since last night's update. Tropical storm Polo is continuing a little north of due west. It is about 1000 miles ssw of Cabo San Lucas. Officially Polo is at 40 mph. Our estimate is 40-45 mph, so little difference than NHC's thinking. We still think it looked the strongest about 24 hours ago. There is potential for some strengthening before Polo encounters a less favorable environment.


TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic


Official NHC Forecast Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/022053.shtml
Official NHC Track / Watches and Warnings
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/204913.shtml?5day?large#contents

Visible Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Monday Afternoon Update
Polo looks weaker

The latest satellite imagery shows a weakening trend. We think that tropical storm Polo is barely holding onto tropical storm strength. It appears that the convection is on the decline.

At 10 am pst Polo was centered near 8.9 N 113.5 W or about 985 ssw of Cabo San Lucas. It seems to be moving more slowly now moving wnw at around 10 mph.

Polo is not a threat to land.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic


Official NHC Forecast Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/022053.shtml
Official NHC Track / Watches and Warnings
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/204913.shtml?5day?large#contents

Visible Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Tuesday Afternoon Update
Polo strengthens a little

Polo has strengthened just a bit and looks to be just near or over 45 mph. Officially NHC has Polo at 40 mph on their last advisory. Deep convection has increased and is mainly on the eastern side of the circulation.

Polo is centered near 10.2 N / 117.7 W or just just over 1000 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

Polo is not a threat to land.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic


Official NHC Forecast Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/022053.shtml
Official NHC Track / Watches and Warnings
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/204913.shtml?5day?large#contents

Visible Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Polo is no longer a tropical depression. NHC mentioned that a quick scat satellite pass showed an open wave.

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

Wednesday Afternoon Update
Remnants of Polo moving west

As we mentioned earlier, The National Hurricane Center stopped writing advisories last night due to a Quickscat satellite pass indicating an open wave instead of a closed low. A newer Quickscat seems to indicate a weak low still which is consistent with the visible satellite imagery. Deep convection still is on the southeast side of the circulation. Top sustained winds are still probably near 30 mph in the convection.

The remnants of Polo are centered near 9.7 N / 122.4 W.

Polo is not a threat to land and this will be our last update, unless NHC reclassifies the tropical cyclone.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic


Official NHC Forecast Advisory
NHC no longer writing advisories
Official NHC Track / Watches and Warnings
NHC no longer writing advisories

Visible Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

_________________
Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert