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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:21 pm 
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The large area of showers and storms north of Puerto Rico by several hundred miles is associated with a strong upper air low. Water temperatures are in the upper 70s.... a little cooler than normally seen for development. The area of disturbed weather will be watched although it would be extremely rare to see development into a subtropical / tropical cyclone this time of year.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 5:43 pm 
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Friday Evening Update

Interesting circulation well north of Puerto Rico

It appears that a rare sub-tropical cyclone may be forming / has formed several hundred miles east of the Bahamas / several hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Deep convection has formed near the center of circulation so some tropical features are present. Since wind shear is forecast to increase NHC will not likely address this system unless convection expands markedly.

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National Hurricane Center
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Official NHC Track
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Satellite
Visible Satellite Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

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Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 23, 2011 10:30 am 
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Saturday Midday Update

Low pressure area loses convection

It appears that what was probably subtropical depression 1 yesterday has now weakened. The expected wind shear increase has stripped all convection. Without convection the low can not develop. There was a period of about 24 hours where a low level circulation was present with convection near the circulation center.

Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite
Image

National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
none
Official NHC Track
none
Satellite
Visible Satellite Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
I.R. Satellite Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

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Rich Johnson
Tropicalweather.net
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert


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