Wednesday Morning UpdateHurricane Hunter will investigate tropical disturbance***NHC has cancelled the flight until tomorrow***
Satellite imagery shows some weak evidence that a low is still trying to from about 100 miles north of the coast of the Dominican Republic. This is where Quickscat sure would have been handy!
The upper air trough is oriented almost north-south east of the Bahamas to Haiti. It is now far enough away to have lesser shearing effects on the tropical disturbance. In fact, excellent outflow aloft is now noted on the eastern side across the northeastern Caribbean.
Rainfall continues to be heavy with storms from the Leewards westward to Haiti.
Today forecast models take this tropical low north of the Islands then near south Florida by Friday morning. The track spread is still generally from the southeast coast of Florida to the coast of the northern Antilles.
All interests in south Florida / The Bahamas / Turks and Caicos / northern Antilles should monitor this disturbance.
Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite
National Hurricane CenterOfficial NHC Advisorynone
Official NHC Tracknone
SatelliteVisible Satellite Imageryhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.htmlI.R. Satellite Imageryhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.htmlRadarPuerto Rico / Virgin Island Radarhttp://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua
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Today's model runs keep the system weak as it moves to a position near extreme south Florida by Friday morning. The models generally curve the low toward the northcentral Gulf a few days later as a minor tropical system. Keep in mind that the models may not have a good representation of this low since it has not formed yet.
