Sunday Night UpdateTropical disturbance ?!
Lets look at the official definitions....Tropical Depression
: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.Tropical Cyclone
: A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
As you can see, it doesn't take much to get a tropical depression. Quickscat now shows a closed circulation. Wind estimates are only 10 mph on the southwest side, but near 35 mph on the northside. Convection is now popping up around the whole circulation. We believe that the definition of a tropical depression was met earlier today.
Satellite imagery shows low pressure area centered near 12.0° N / 47.8° W or about 860 miles east of the Windward Islands. Conditions continue to be favorable for slow strengthening. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph and slowly increasing. It is moving northwest at about 10-15 mph. This may be a temporary motion and a more wnw may resume. Seas are still near 9-13' near the low.
Tropical forecast models are split on this system. Most recurve it northeast of the Leewards, some take it close to the northern Antillies later this week. None of the models develop this system very much.
If you are traveling to the eastern / northern Caribbean next week keep updated on the progress of this system. Tropicast: Atlantic I.R. Floater Satellite (6:15 pm edt)National Hurricane CenterOfficial NHC Advisory
none Official NHC Track
none SatelliteVisible Satellite Imageryhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.htmlI.R. Satellite Imageryhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html