Monday Night Update
Fay becoming better organized - 60 mph / 998 mb
NHC retracted their landfall time of 3 pm at Key West and posted the landfall time about 1 1/2 later.
The latest radar and satellite imagery show that Fay's structure is looking more impressive. the northern part of the circulation is solid with very heavy convection. This is what is trying to become an eye wall. If it wraps around, then that's when significant development will occur. The south side of the circulation is just starting to develop scattered showers.
At this point it still looks like a landfall in southwest Florida. We have been following the couple of models that had a good handle on this since yesterday. Right now the Ft. Myers (Sanibel) area still looks to be the general region. It could just skirt the coast near Marco and Naples by tomorrow morning. We do expect a northeast turn. If the turns occurs late, it may make landfall a little farther up the road near Venice later Tuesday. The longer it lingers over the water, the more time for it to strengthen.
Doppler radar has estimated that 8"+ of rainfall has occurred in the bands south of the Keys and now over Florida Bay. Locally 5"+ over the Everglades. Some totals of 10"+ will be likely in south Florida before this is over. A huge help for the dry areas!
NHC and the other models are now getting closer to the two that we have been following. A northeast turn off of the Space coast north of Cape Canaveral then a turn to the west. One model takes it over the Big Bend still and out into the Gulf, then north into the panhandle again.....Remember the scenario that we mentioned yesterday

We'll the model is still calling for it. Our other favorite model makes the west turn farther north into Georgia. Both have generally the same idea though. They move Fay northeast, then the high builds in strong again to send Fay west or southwest.

Either way, FAy is going to be around for quite awhile.
The main concern now is with heavy rain. As mentioned before 10"+ is possible in south Florida ( 5"+ has already fallen). Isolated tornadoes are possible and power outages near the track of the low. Storm tides will be coming up tonight as Fay approaches the coast....3-5 feet but could be higher if Fay strengthens.
TropicalWeather.net's Tropicast:
