Monday Afternoon Update

Erin classified west of Africa
Erin is showing a closed circulation and increasing convection and has been classified west of the Cabo Verde Islands west of the African coast.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 2305 MI...3710 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB Cira-Slider


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Erin will track generally west the next few days over the tropical north Atlantic. Models show it moving to the north of the Lesser Antilles by around Saturday, but interests in the area should still follow this tropical cyclone.

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Erin over the open Atlantic
Erin is moving quickly west today. Convection has expanded and strengthening is expected.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 36.3W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1765 MI...2835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB Cira-Slider


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Erin will track generally west the next few days over the tropical north Atlantic. Models show it moving to the north of the Lesser Antilles by around Saturday, but interests in the area should still follow this tropical cyclone.

Wednesday Morning Update

Erin regains convection
Yesterday the circulation of Erin was embedded in dust from Africa, possibly inhibiting growth. This morning we see more robust convection near the center of circulation. Top sustained winds may be a bit higher than 45 mph.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 41.9W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models continue to show Erin moving west, then WNW just north of the Lesser Antilles. It is expected to turn east of the Bahamas and US coast. Keep in mind the track need to be closely watched as any slight motion further south could change the forecast track.

Thursday Evening Update

Tropical storm watches for parts of the Leewards
Today's satellite imagery is changing. A burst of deep convection has developed over the past several hours indicating a strengthening phase.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 51.2W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider Thursday Afternoon


Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider Thursday Morning


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models have been very persistent is keeping Erin north of the Leewards, east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands Friday night and Saturday. Showers and gusty winds are expected in rain squalls. Erin is expected to turn more northwesterly early next week east of the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.

Preparations should be finished Friday In the Leewards. The Turks and Caicos / eastern Bahamas should also watch the track carefully and take appropriate precautions.

Friday Morning Update

Erin will be a hurricane soon
Visible satellite this morning shows continued organization and a core of heavy convection over the center of circulation. Squalls are also now approaching the Leewards with some just east of Guadeloupe, Antigua, and Barbuda. Heavy rain and some gusts to tropical storm strength can be expected.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 55.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models continue to be very persistent in keeping Erin north of the Leewards, east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. Showers and gusty winds are expected in rain squalls. Erin is expected to turn more northwesterly early next week east of the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.

Preparations should be finished this morning In the Leewards. The Turks and Caicos / eastern Bahamas should also watch the track carefully and take appropriate precautions.

Saturday Morning Update

Erin rapidly strengthens
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found a much stronger hurricane. Erin is a dangerous category 4 hurricane north of the Leewards. Satellite imagery show that the central dense overcast is just north of the Leewards with squalls over the Leewards.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 550 AM AST...0950 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

Tropicast: IR satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider


Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider


Tropicast: NWS San Juan Radar 6:35am AST Saturday (GR Level 3)


Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon report



Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models have still changed little. They take Erin north of the Leewards, east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It is passing north of the Leeward Islands today with squalls affecting the region. Showers and gusty winds are expected in rain squalls. Erin is expected to turn more northwesterly early next week east of the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas. It may be close enough to require watches/warnings from NHC.

Preparations should be finished soon in the Turks and Caicos / eastern Bahamas.

Saturday Afternoon Update

Erin continues explosive development
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found a pressure of 915 mb which is extremely low and reserved for the strongest hurricanes. Explosive deepening has been continuing since last night. Erin will likely level off in strength soon and winds will fluctuate with eyewall replacement cycles. The most intense winds are in the eyewall which appears on the top right of the radar image below. Outside of the core, the heaviest rain squalls are northeast of the Virgin Islands at this time.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider


Tropicast: IR satellite RAMMB/CIRA Slider


Tropicast: NWS San Juan Radar 1:34 pm AST Saturday (GR Level 3)


The red box indicates winds of 160 knots at a flight level around 10000 ft. The blue box indicates a pressure of 916.3 mb.

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon report



Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models have still changed little. They take Erin north of the Leewards, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It is passing north of the Leeward Islands today with squalls affecting the region. Showers and gusty winds are expected in rain squalls. Erin is expected to turn more northwesterly early next week east of the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas. It may be close enough to require watches/warnings from NHC.

Preparations should be finished soon in the Turks and Caicos / eastern Bahamas.

Sunday Morning Update

Erin weakens, but still dangerous
At expected, Erin has gone through an eyewall replacement. Winds have dropped considerably, and pressure has risen. Despite this, this is still a dangerous hurricane. Tropical storm warnings are now posted for the Turks and Caicos and watches for the SE Bahamas. Even tough the hurricane is expected still to turn well east of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, heavy squalls with winds to tropical storm force are expected later today.

Currently Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands are experiencing some outer bands with heavy rain as the eye is passing well north of Puerto Rico. Some Initials heavy showers are also seen over the Turks and Caicos this morning.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

8 am AST Update:
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 67.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

Tropicast: IR satellite NOAA


Tropicast: NWS San Juan Radar ~6:50 am AST Sunday (GR Level 3)


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to take Erin east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It is passing north of Puerto Rico this morning with squalls affecting Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Erin is expected to turn more northwesterly soon and rain squalls will be approaching the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later today.

Preparations should be finished soon in the Turks and Caicos / eastern Bahamas.

Sunday Evening Update

Erin east of the Turks and Caicos
Erin's eye is clouded over. Currently a Hurricane Hunter is investigating and a more complete report will be available before the next official NHC advisory at 11 pm AST. Rain squalls are near the Turks and Caicos as well as the Dominican Republic. The core of the hurricane is expanding and it will likely go through another strengthening phase east of the Bahamas.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 68.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

Tropicast: NOAA IR Sunday evening


Tropicast: Visible RAMMB/CIRA slider early afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to take Erin east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It will begin pulling away from the Bahamas by Monday morning. Currently the greatest threat is heavy rain squalls to tropical storm force over the Turks and Caicos / SE Bahamas. Also high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast during the next several days.

Monday Morning Update

Erin growing in size
Erin is growing in size, but thankfully is pulling slowly away from the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Squalls should slowly weaken by later today.
As of 8am, the pressure is dropping again, indicating another strengthening phase,

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 70.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Update:
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Tropicast: NOAA IR Satellite


Tropicast: Recon Report


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue to take Erin east of the Bahamas and eastern US. It will begin pulling away from the Bahamas today. Currently the greatest threat is heavy rain squalls to tropical storm force over the Turks and Caicos / SE Bahamas. Also high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast during the next several days.

Monday Evening Update

Squalls still affecting the SE Bahamas
IR satellite imagery this evening shows heavy heavy rain squalls just east of the SE Bahamas as the outer part of the western eyewall brushes by Mayaguana. Still, rainband squalls are affecting the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. The latest reports from the Hurricane Hunters shows pressure and winds changing little.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 71.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider Visible Satellite Late Afternoon


Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider IR Satellite early evening


Tropicast: Recon Report
115 knots at flight level (~7500 ft) strongest gust


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Squalls will continue to weaken over the Turks and Caicos tonight and the SE Bahamas into tomorrow. The closest approach to the US will be offshore of Cape Hatteras Wednesday night and Thursday. Despite staying east of the coast, very significant high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast can be expected during the next several days.

Tuesday Morning Update

Erin weakens overnight
IR satellite imagery shows that the Erin has been fighting northwesterly wind shear and dry air. The circulation is asymmetric and the convection near the core is ragged. It is likely no longer a major hurricane with top winds less than the official NHC estimate. It is still possible that another strengthening phase will commence and Erin remains a dangerous hurricane.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider IR Satellite early evening


Tropical Weather Forecast:
The closest approach to the US will be offshore of Cape Hatteras Wednesday night and Thursday. Despite staying east of the coast, very significant high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast can be expected during the next several days. Later this week Erin will pass west, then north of Bermuda.

Tuesday Evening Update

Advisories posted for US Mid-Atlantic
Parts of the central and northern North Carolina coast are under a tropical storm warning, and Virginia coast a tropical storm watch. Winds of 39-73 mph are considered tropical storm force. The greatest chance for seeing these gusty winds will be on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Rain squalls will be more likely in that location too.

IR imagery suggest that a strengthen phase is about to start as the core of the hurricane becomes more concentric and cloud tops cool.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider Visible Satellite


Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider IR Satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
The closest approach to the US will be offshore of Cape Hatteras Wednesday night and Thursday. Despite staying east of the coast, very significant high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast can be expected during the next several days. Later this week Erin will pass west, then north of Bermuda.

Wednesday Morning Update

Rough surf on US coast the next few days
Clouds from Erin will approach the Outer Banks today and rain will follow this evening into Thursday. Gusty tropical storm force winds can be expected. High surf will be seen on the beaches and swimming is not recommended. Winds have weakened since the past 24 hours, but the size of the hurricane has grown, allowing for the generation of high surf with the larger area of strong winds.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

UPDATE:
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 73.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider Visible Satellite


Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider IR Satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
The closest approach to the US will be offshore of Cape Hatteras tonight and the first half of Thursday. Despite staying east of the coast, very significant high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast can be expected during the next several days. Later Thursday and Friday, Erin will pass well west, then north of Bermuda.

Wednesday Late Evening Update

Rough surf continues
Erin is passing east of the North Carolina coast tonight. Surf remains very high and dangerous. Satellite imagery shows a small area of deep convection with the eyewall well offshore and a thicker, larger band south of the core.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider Visible Satellite


Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider IR Satellite


Tropicast: Radar GR Level 3 9:50 pm edt


Tropicast: Wundermap Windstream 10 pm edt


Tropical Weather Forecast:
The closest approach to the US will be offshore of Cape Hatteras tonight and the first half of Thursday. Despite staying east of the coast, very significant high surf and strong rip tides on the eastern US coast can be expected during the next several days. Later Thursday and Friday, Erin will pass well west, then north of Bermuda.