Monday Morning Update

Nicole forms
IR satellite shows that Nicole is very unconventional looking. There is a low level circulation on the western elongated north-south area of convection.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Tropicast: IR Satellite



Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicole will move generally west for the next 2-3 days. Models have been showing a landfall on the south Florida coast as a tropical / subtropical storm for several days now.

Monday Evening Update

Nicole looks disorganized
Visible satellite shows a very unimpressive center of circulation at this time. The structure looks more like a warm occlusion instead of a subtropical storm.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite



Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicole will move generally west for the next 2-3 days. Models have been showing a landfall on the south Florida coast as a tropical / subtropical storm or minimal hurricane for several days now. Beach erosion is a concern over the Florida east coast.

Tuesday Evening Update

Nicole's structure improving
Visible satellite today indicated that Nicole no longer looks like a warm occlusion but actually a tropical storm now. Deep convection has built and expanded around the center of circulation.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite



Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicole will move near the northern Bahamas Wednesday afternoon, then toward the south Florida coast making landfall close to midnight. It is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the Bahamas. Hurricane force winds, storm surge, heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes and beach erosion is expected near and north of where the center makes landfall.

Wednesday Midday Update

Nicole is near the Abacos
Nicole is moving generally westward and will pass over the northern Bahamas today. It is near the Abacos Islands then near Grand Bahama later today. Dry air is seen on the southside of the circulation, so rainfall will be much heavier near and to the north of the low center.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicole will make landfall close to midnight. It is expected to become a hurricane over the northern Bahamas today. Tomorrow, Nicole will move off of the west coast of Florida north of Tampa.

Wednesday Night Update

Nicole over Grand Bahama
Nicole is over Grand Bahama with a large circulation center seen on radar. Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found top winds around 90 mph. An 80% reduction factor from this 850 mb wind would give a surface estimate of about 75 mph.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Late Wednesday Afternoon


Tropicast: IR Satellite Wednesday Night


Tropicast: Radar 8:15 pm est


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicole is about to make landfall. It will then move WNW into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning north of Tampa. It will then turn north into Georgia into Friday.

Thursday Morning Update

Nicole over central Florida
The central circulation of Nicole is over central Florida. IMO Nicole was never a hurricane. Winds across the peninsula do not show sustained winds
40 mph. It is likely that sustained winds of 70 mph (now officially 60 mph) were not occurring over water.

From NHC overnight: A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) were recently reported at Patrick Air Force Base, Florida. Winds are increasing near the west coast of Florida. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) were recently reported at Clearwater Beach.

A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station near Stuart Beach, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h).


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 81.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

Tropicast: IR satellite


Tropicast: Wundermap 6 am est


Tropicast: Radar 630 am


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Nicole move WNW into the Gulf of Mexico in several hours north of Tampa. It will then turn north into Georgia into Friday.